Leafs Get Andersen from Ducks

[Zee]

The accumulation of draft picks is to make moves exactly like this one.  The Leafs had a need, they have a whack of picks, so they burned a couple to fill their need yet still are sitting on a bunch of picks to stock the cupboards.  They were likely going to use at least one pick for a goalie anyways (I still think they should to have a guy in the pipeline).

Andersen to me in an in-betweener.  He's not an older goalie and UFA in waiting in Fleury or Bishop, nor is he a young can't miss like Vasilevskiy or Gibson (both of whom would obviously cost more).  If he can settle in and be a top 12-15 goalie for this team over the next five years, I'll be happy.  I completely trust Lou with what he's doing, so if he's going all in on Andersen, I can't argue much with it.

Let me get this straight...the Leafs accumulated early round picks to trade them away for players that'll be 27 when the season starts and sign them to 5 year $25m deals?

See, that's what I can understand them doing once the team is a couple of more years into the rebuild. It's a pretty bizarre move this early on, particularly since Andersen isn't exactly a top-tier starting goaltender.

And they haven't paid him top-tier starting money either.  What's the alternative they would have done with that 30th pick?  Draft a goalie and hope he develops in 3-5 years?  At least with this move the Leafs should have dependable goaltending in the near term.  If that helps the group play better in front of him and gain confidence knowing they have a reliable guy back there, it helps the overall development of the team.

This doesn't prevent the Leafs from still drafting a goalie in later rounds and hoping he's ready in 5 years.

The alternative(s) is/are what Carlton suggested.

Holding onto to Bernier and hoping he performs is a valid option for sure, I suggested that Bernier might rebound and have a good season in another thread, but I think we have to wait and see what other moves the Leafs have in store.  I can see them flipping other guys and getting picks in return, there are many options open.

 

[bustaheims]

Yep, late 1st and 2nd round picks are chump change, draft smaft. Anything later then a high 1st round pick should be traded.

They're not chump change, but their value is limited. The odds are against them becoming full-time NHLers. There are also limits on how many prospects you can have at any one time (you're allowed to have the rights to 90 players - and that includes players under contract), as well as the number of contracts a team can have signed. At some point, picks and prospects have to get moved to make room, and sometimes that means more valuable picks get bundled for NHL talent.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

what if it was 31 and 2017 2nd?

2 2nds for andersen.  Would people feel better if that was the deal as opposed to a 1st and a 2nd.

Geeze you don't think much of us do you? I think everyone here understands the difference between 30 and 31 is absolutely nothing.

 

[bustaheims]

if they had signed him to an offer sheet it would have cost a 1st and a 3rd...their own picks.  They moved the third to a second in order to be able to use pittsburgh's 1st...at least thats how I see it.  Plus if they use one of SJ's 2nds it'll in all likelihood be lower than the leafs next year.

thats my take on teh return for the trade.

The various sites that track draft pick movement seem to feel it is the San Jose pick that was sent, which is likely to be the lowest of the 2nd rounders the Leafs would have had next year.

 

[Highlander]

I don't see a down side to this at all, the Leafs get a starting goalie for the going rate for a starter. Berniers contract expires at the end of next year (I believe) and he can be replaced by Bibeau or Sparks as back up to Anderson as we move forward.

 

[bustaheims]

Geeze you don't think much of us do you? I think everyone here understands the difference between 30 and 31 is absolutely nothing.

I don't know about that. Some people seem to be making a big deal about the fact that the Leafs moved a 1st round pick.

 

[Peter D.]

I don't know about that. Some people seem to be making a big deal about the fact that the Leafs moved a 1st round pick.

30th overall pick -- "Just like giving away a 2nd rounder"
31st overall pick -- "Just like having another 1st rounder"

Haha.

 

[nutman]

I like this trade.....It seems management sees the potential of what we have. I can't wait until July 1st, like I said this season is a see what we have season, and next we start the climb.

Also bye bye Bernier.

 

[Zee]

I don't see a down side to this at all, the Leafs get a starting goalie for the going rate for a starter. Berniers contract expires at the end of next year (I believe) and he can be replaced by Bibeau or Sparks as back up to Anderson as we move forward.

The downside is if Anderson comes in and totally flops like previous goalies have done in this market.  The upside is if both Anderson and Bernier play really well, suddenly the Leafs have a position of strength and can look to move Bernier in a trade.  There's always some team looking for goalie insurance, similar to what San Jose did in getting Reimer.  Bernier with an expiring contract and playing well would be a nice addition for a team.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Just curious what in Anderson's play is scaring people of so much? I know people can be gun shy because this type of deal didn't work in the past with previous GM's pulling trigger

I wondered that too.  It's not like they will be needing the cap space for a few years.  From all I've read, it seems most out there like the deal

Well for me, there's 2 parts to it. The trade and the contract. As far as trade goes, I understand that what we gave up is probably roughly what a goalie like Andersen is worth. But I still feel like the Leafs could have used those picks in other ways that would have made more sense given where the team is at right now. Whether that's by picking someone at 30, using the pick to move up in the draft if someone they liked was available, or trading it in another deal. But, we used it the way we did. It's not the end of the world.

The contract is a little more what I have a problem with. In the most compact way I can phrase is what worries me is that we committed $25mil over 5 years to a 27-year old unproven player at the games most unpredictable position.

It's entirely possible that both the trade and the contract work out just fine and if that's the case I'll certainly be Andersen's biggest fan. But I can't not look at this all critically just because Lou is the one who pulled the trigger.

What would you consider to be proven at the goaltending position?  Off the top of my head I cannot recall any articles I've read on the topic.

 

[TBLeafer]

I don't know about that. Some people seem to be making a big deal about the fact that the Leafs moved a 1st round pick.

30th overall pick -- "Just like giving away a 2nd rounder"
31st overall pick -- "Just like having another 1st rounder"

Haha.

It is known. 

 

[cujo4ever]

Interesting quote from a TSN article http://www.tsn.ca/leafs-acquire-g-andersen-from-ducks-for-picks-1.511624

This is the second time in the last five years Murray has traded for the Leafs? pick at No. 30. In 2011, Anaheim gave Toronto the No. 22 selection for No. 30 and No. 39. The Leafs took winger Tyler Biggs, who has never played a game in the NHL and was traded to the Penguins in last summer?s Kessel deal. The Ducks selected Rickard Rakell at No. 30 and Gibson at No. 39, two players who have become important pieces in their success.

Let's hope this trade works out a little better!

 

[KadriFan]

Just curious what in Anderson's play is scaring people of so much? I know people can be gun shy because this type of deal didn't work in the past with previous GM's pulling trigger

I wondered that too.  It's not like they will be needing the cap space for a few years.  From all I've read, it seems most out there like the deal

Well for me, there's 2 parts to it. The trade and the contract. As far as trade goes, I understand that what we gave up is probably roughly what a goalie like Andersen is worth. But I still feel like the Leafs could have used those picks in other ways that would have made more sense given where the team is at right now. Whether that's by picking someone at 30, using the pick to move up in the draft if someone they liked was available, or trading it in another deal. But, we used it the way we did. It's not the end of the world.

The contract is a little more what I have a problem with. In the most compact way I can phrase is what worries me is that we committed $25mil over 5 years to a 27-year old unproven player at the games most unpredictable position.

It's entirely possible that both the trade and the contract work out just fine and if that's the case I'll certainly be Andersen's biggest fan. But I can't not look at this all critically just because Lou is the one who pulled the trigger.

I don't really think the money mattered as much as getting him did to Lou.  This is a young team and years away from spending big on contracts. 

 

[herman]

 

[Andy007]

The accumulation of draft picks is to make moves exactly like this one.  The Leafs had a need, they have a whack of picks, so they burned a couple to fill their need yet still are sitting on a bunch of picks to stock the cupboards.  They were likely going to use at least one pick for a goalie anyways (I still think they should to have a guy in the pipeline).

Andersen to me in an in-betweener.  He's not an older goalie and UFA in waiting in Fleury or Bishop, nor is he a young can't miss like Vasilevskiy or Gibson (both of whom would obviously cost more).  If he can settle in and be a top 12-15 goalie for this team over the next five years, I'll be happy.  I completely trust Lou with what he's doing, so if he's going all in on Andersen, I can't argue much with it.

Let me get this straight...the Leafs accumulated early round picks to trade them away for players that'll be 27 when the season starts and sign them to 5 year $25m deals?

See, that's what I can understand them doing once the team is a couple of more years into the rebuild. It's a pretty bizarre move this early on, particularly since Andersen isn't exactly a top-tier starting goaltender.

And they haven't paid him top-tier starting money either.  What's the alternative they would have done with that 30th pick?  Draft a goalie and hope he develops in 3-5 years?  At least with this move the Leafs should have dependable goaltending in the near term.  If that helps the group play better in front of him and gain confidence knowing they have a reliable guy back there, it helps the overall development of the team.

This doesn't prevent the Leafs from still drafting a goalie in later rounds and hoping he's ready in 5 years.

The alternative(s) is/are what Carlton suggested.

Holding onto to Bernier and hoping he performs is a valid option for sure, I suggested that Bernier might rebound and have a good season in another thread, but I think we have to wait and see what other moves the Leafs have in store.  I can see them flipping other guys and getting picks in return, there are many options open.

Sure, this could easily work out well for the Leafs too. I'm more on the fence about this deal than being actively against it really. I'm just not sure why this had to be done now with 25 million dollars committed to a player who is widely unproved as a starter.

 

[Zee]

I'm just enthusiastic that I've spelled Andersen's name wrong in every previous post and nobody cares. 

 

[Bill_Berg]

Not liking Andersen's low danger save percentage.

 

[Highlander]

it also makes the Kessel trade a little more palatable, if Anderson is good for us and Kapi turns out to be a top six then the return is not terrible (and Phil did have to go as much as I loved him).

 

[TBLeafer]

Is he a hero and a warrior too, though? 

 

[CarltonTheBear]

What would you consider to be proven at the goaltending position?  Off the top of my head I cannot recall any articles I've read on the topic.

It's a subjective term for me admittedly. I look at him and see 3 seasons of NHL play under his belt. In his first season he came in as the back-up to Hiller and played 28 games. He also clearly outplayed Hiller and recorded his best save-percentage of his career with 0.923. He took over in the playoffs that year and that earned him the starters job the next season. He played 54 games the next year which is his career high. In what may or may not be a complete coincidence that season is also when he had his lowest save-percentage of his career at .914. Then John Gibson emerged this season and of course they played basically an even split of games.

So he's coming in with 3 years that go back up-starter-tandem. So I don't know how to define a "proven" starter but to me he's not quite there. I'd also add that if he were turning 24 or 25 instead of 27 I might be a tad more forgiving of him for all this, but his age is what it is.

And when I'm talking about him being a "proven" starter it's just really important to me when trying to establish his cap hit. I feel like $4.5-5.5mil is the standard window for a proven, average starting goalie. Andersen might have had the least amount of experience of any goalie who signed in that window at the time of their signing.