Leafs Get Andersen from Ducks

[herman]

How long does it normally take for a goalie to develop? Unless he's at the top of the draft as a blue-chipper, 2 years seems a bit brief.

I feel pretty good about picking up Andersen right now because it's like we drafted him with the 30th, and then spent the 2017 2nd on a handful of Rare Candies to level him up to playing shape with room to grow, aligned with the development curve with the rest of our group (maybe a bit ahead). At the worst, he has been about league average. At his best, he has stolen playoff games.

I definitely get the trepidation some have with this move (picks for a backup from California?!).

Some key differences that make me feel better about this one:
1. this management group actually triggered and executed the teardown (still in progress), whereas the others thought the goalie was the piece to help put them over. This group has also targeted the types of players more suited to the NHL's current and projected playstyles. It's a foundation move that was purchased rather than developed.

2. Babcock's system has shown itself to be quite different from Wilson's and Carlyle's, and is designed to be less goaltender dependent (not that Andersen hasn't shown he can handle it anyway).

3. A goaltender that doesn't have the tendency to cough up weirdo goals at inopportune moments is going to go a long way to helping the defense and forward groups develop -- they'll make mistakes, but at least they likely won't be shafted on every mis-bounce.

 

[bustaheims]

How long does it normally take for a goalie to develop? Unless he's at the top of the draft as a blue-chipper, 2 years seems a bit brief.

3-5 years seems to be the typical timeframe, if that goalie is going to develop into a reliable starter.

 

[KadriFan]

I hate the deal what's the hurry to get a goalie. Feels like the same old trading picks and prospects for someone else's cast away goalie. Really don't see the urgency. Stack the cuboards and build from within.

He is only a "cast away" goalie from another team because that other team has another very good goalie who is even younger and they had to make a decision on one of them.  Cory Schneider was a "cast away" from Vancouver if you want to use that same definition and he's probably a top 5 goalie in the league.

Didn't the Sharks do a similar move last summer for a starter?  Seemed to work out pretty well. 

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

How long does it normally take for a goalie to develop? Unless he's at the top of the draft as a blue-chipper, 2 years seems a bit brief.

Just one example but Carey Price wasn't a clear-cut #1 until arguably 5 years after he was drafted (he had a very good year before that but struggled in other years).

 

[cabber24]

Andersen AKA Raycroft 4.0 AKA Andrew Raycroft the 4th. Hard for me to be optimistic about this one, trading a 1st and 2nd is very far out of comprehension for me. A last place team trading a 1st and 2nd round pick? Really? I mean really? Mind blown by this one.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Andersen AKA Raycroft 4.0 AKA Andrew Raycroft the 4th. Hard for me to optimistic about this one, trading a 1st and 2nd is very far out of comprehension for me. A last place team trading a 1st and 2nd round pick? Really? I mean really? Mind blown by this one.

What's the similarity to Andrew Raycroft?  That they are both goalies who were traded?

 

[wnc096]

We needed a capable NHL goalie for next season, so why not go out and get one? Bernier isn't the answer, maybe Andersen is?

I think some people dispute the idea that you needed one next year. Or at least that you needed anything other than a decent back-up. Bernier probably isn't the long-term answer sure but we're not talking about a night and day difference. Bernier's career SV%(and SV% with the Leafs) is .915. Anderson's SV% in his three seasons is .918. Even having a bad year last year the difference between Bernier and a league average SV% was less than 10 goals. The difference between Andersen, playing on a much better team, and Bernier was 15 goals in roughly the same amoung of playing time

Bernier's problem wasn't his stats....its the demoralizing goals he would give up almost every other game.  I can't remember how many games in the past couple years that the leafs were already down like 5 mins into the game...I haven't seen Andersen play more than a couple of games, but I couldn't handle anymore Bernier

 

[Zee]

Andersen AKA Raycroft 4.0 AKA Andrew Raycroft the 4th. Hard for me to optimistic about this one, trading a 1st and 2nd is very far out of comprehension for me. A last place team trading a 1st and 2nd round pick? Really? I mean really? Mind blown by this one.

Not like they traded their own first pick.  Also, they had picks 30 and 31 in this draft, so the 31st pick is essentially as good as the 30th.  2nd round pick is for next year, of which I believe they had 3 second rounders.

 

[Peter D.]

The accumulation of draft picks is to make moves exactly like this one.  The Leafs had a need, they have a whack of picks, so they burned a couple to fill their need yet still are sitting on a bunch of picks to stock the cupboards.  They were likely going to use at least one pick for a goalie anyways (I still think they should to have a guy in the pipeline).

Andersen to me in an in-betweener.  He's not an older goalie and UFA in waiting in Fleury or Bishop, nor is he a young can't miss like Vasilevskiy or Gibson (both of whom would obviously cost more).  If he can settle in and be a top 12-15 goalie for this team over the next five years, I'll be happy.  I completely trust Lou with what he's doing, so if he's going all in on Andersen, I can't argue much with it. 

 

[Bill_Berg]

We needed a capable NHL goalie for next season, so why not go out and get one? Bernier isn't the answer, maybe Andersen is?

I think some people dispute the idea that you needed one next year. Or at least that you needed anything other than a decent back-up. Bernier probably isn't the long-term answer sure but we're not talking about a night and day difference. Bernier's career SV%(and SV% with the Leafs) is .915. Anderson's SV% in his three seasons is .918. Even having a bad year last year the difference between Bernier and a league average SV% was less than 10 goals. The difference between Andersen, playing on a much better team, and Bernier was 15 goals in roughly the same amoung of playing time

Bernier's problem wasn't his stats....its the demoralizing goals he would give up almost every other game.  I can't remember how many games in the past couple years that the leafs were already down like 5 mins into the game...I haven't seen Andersen play more than a couple of games, but I couldn't handle anymore Bernier

Lou pointed this out in one of the articles I read about this trade. That it's not good for the confidence of the team in general to allow those demoralizing goals. That may be a significant reason why they pulled the trigger on this guy.

 

[Zee]

The accumulation of draft picks is to make moves exactly like this one.  The Leafs had a need, they have a whack of picks, so they burned a couple to fill their need yet still are sitting on a bunch of picks to stock the cupboards.  They were likely going to use at least one pick for a goalie anyways (I still think they should to have a guy in the pipeline).

Andersen to me in an in-betweener.  He's not an older goalie and UFA in waiting in Fleury or Bishop, nor is he a young can't miss like Vasilevskiy or Gibson (both of whom would obviously cost more).  If he can settle in and be a top 12-15 goalie for this team over the next five years, I'll be happy.  I completely trust Lou with what he's doing, so if he's going all in on Andersen, I can't argue much with it.

The position of that Pittsburgh pick also made the decision easier. Had the Pens middled all season and barely qualified for the playoffs, the pick would have been in the teens as opposed to 30th.  At that point the value is more for that pick and the Leafs probably hold onto the second first rounder.

 

[wnc096]

Andersen AKA Raycroft 4.0 AKA Andrew Raycroft the 4th. Hard for me to optimistic about this one, trading a 1st and 2nd is very far out of comprehension for me. A last place team trading a 1st and 2nd round pick? Really? I mean really? Mind blown by this one.

Not like they traded their own first pick.  Also, they had picks 30 and 31 in this draft, so the 31st pick is essentially as good as the 30th.  2nd round pick is for next year, of which I believe they had 3 second rounders.

My thoughts exactly.  Lou traded for Schneider,  who had less of a resume than Andersen, a few years back for a top 10 pick,  and I think NJ is ok with that deal....I trust Lou's judgement.  Hasn't made many bad moves since he arrived here

 

[Frank E]

How long does it normally take for a goalie to develop? Unless he's at the top of the draft as a blue-chipper, 2 years seems a bit brief.

3-5 years seems to be the typical timeframe, if that goalie is going to develop into a reliable starter.

Right, and we've got that kind of time, or so I'm told.  And that guy probably wouldn't cost $5m a year of cap at that point either.

 

[cabber24]

Andersen AKA Raycroft 4.0 AKA Andrew Raycroft the 4th. Hard for me to optimistic about this one, trading a 1st and 2nd is very far out of comprehension for me. A last place team trading a 1st and 2nd round pick? Really? I mean really? Mind blown by this one.

What's the similarity to Andrew Raycroft?  That they are both goalies who were traded?

No similarities besides the method and price we paid for the last 3 crap goalies we acquired to be our number 1. I am simply expressing my dislike for the deal. I believe more picks will yield better draft results then less pick. I don't believe these picks were utilized well.

 

[KadriFan]

How long does it normally take for a goalie to develop? Unless he's at the top of the draft as a blue-chipper, 2 years seems a bit brief.

3-5 years seems to be the typical timeframe, if that goalie is going to develop into a reliable starter.

Right, and we've got that kind of time, or so I'm told.  And that guy probably wouldn't cost $5m a year of cap at that point either.

Do the Leafs need cap space right now?

 

[Frank E]

The accumulation of draft picks is to make moves exactly like this one.  The Leafs had a need, they have a whack of picks, so they burned a couple to fill their need yet still are sitting on a bunch of picks to stock the cupboards.  They were likely going to use at least one pick for a goalie anyways (I still think they should to have a guy in the pipeline).

Andersen to me in an in-betweener.  He's not an older goalie and UFA in waiting in Fleury or Bishop, nor is he a young can't miss like Vasilevskiy or Gibson (both of whom would obviously cost more).  If he can settle in and be a top 12-15 goalie for this team over the next five years, I'll be happy.  I completely trust Lou with what he's doing, so if he's going all in on Andersen, I can't argue much with it.

Let me get this straight...the Leafs accumulated early round picks to trade them away for players that'll be 27 when the season starts and sign them to 5 year $25m deals?

 

[herman]

How long does it normally take for a goalie to develop? Unless he's at the top of the draft as a blue-chipper, 2 years seems a bit brief.

Just one example but Carey Price wasn't a clear-cut #1 until arguably 5 years after he was drafted (he had a very good year before that but struggled in other years).

3-5 years seems to be the typical timeframe, if that goalie is going to develop into a reliable starter.

That's all dependent on whether we pick a goalie that actually develops to become reliable, right? Plus, it's not like every drafted goalie hits that threshold, and outside the top 10 they're kind of hard to identify.

With Andersen in the fold, I can see them throwing some darts at the goalie picks these next few years. One of them might blossom to overtake Andersen when the time comes. In the meantime, we're not buying an established UFA 7M+ goalie (Fleury? Bishop?), and we're not trying to get by on budget veterans.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

How long does it normally take for a goalie to develop? Unless he's at the top of the draft as a blue-chipper, 2 years seems a bit brief.

3-5 years seems to be the typical timeframe, if that goalie is going to develop into a reliable starter.

Right, and we've got that kind of time, or so I'm told.  And that guy probably wouldn't cost $5m a year of cap at that point either.

That guy also doesn't exist right now.  What do you do for the next 5 years?  Re-sign Bernier?  He's at least $4 million.  Sign Reimer?  (1) If he wants to come back, 2) any savings are probably negligible for the Leafs and 3) he's almost 29.  Sign some other guy?  For how long?  What if the un-drafted, un-named goalie doesn't pan out, who do you get then?  What if you can't get them?

Seems like a ton of unknowns to me.  If I'm management and I think I've done my homework and can get the guy I want on a reasonable contract, I'd go for it.  Maybe Andersen becomes the guy, maybe he doesn't.  They hardly made an insane commitment to him.  You don't need your goalie to be Carey Price to win anyway.

 

[Andy007]

The accumulation of draft picks is to make moves exactly like this one.  The Leafs had a need, they have a whack of picks, so they burned a couple to fill their need yet still are sitting on a bunch of picks to stock the cupboards.  They were likely going to use at least one pick for a goalie anyways (I still think they should to have a guy in the pipeline).

Andersen to me in an in-betweener.  He's not an older goalie and UFA in waiting in Fleury or Bishop, nor is he a young can't miss like Vasilevskiy or Gibson (both of whom would obviously cost more).  If he can settle in and be a top 12-15 goalie for this team over the next five years, I'll be happy.  I completely trust Lou with what he's doing, so if he's going all in on Andersen, I can't argue much with it.

Let me get this straight...the Leafs accumulated early round picks to trade them away for players that'll be 27 when the season starts and sign them to 5 year $25m deals?

See, that's what I can understand them doing once the team is a couple of more years into the rebuild. It's a pretty bizarre move this early on, particularly since Andersen isn't exactly a top-tier starting goaltender.

 

[bustaheims]

That's all dependent on whether we pick a goalie that actually develops to become reliable, right? Plus, it's not like every drafted goalie hits that threshold, and outside the top 10 they're kind of hard to identify.

Exactly. The Leafs could draft goalies with all of their picks and still not land on a goalie that develops that way. This year's crop of goalies isn't particularly well regarded either, so, there's a good chance the team would have to wait 4-6 years for their guy, and, in the meantime, they needed someone who could provide some sort of stability back there.