Leafs @ Jets - Jan. 25th, 7:00pm - CBC, TSN 1050

[CarltonTheBear]

If they went heavier on the green instead of purple, I imagine it would have stood out just fine.

 

[Kin]

There's a flaw in that logic. The part where getting out of the way is a complete certainty of a loss of possession, while competing for it not.

No, the flaw is in the assumption that a change in possession will invariably result in a shot on goal. Your problem with the Phaneuf play is how a decision that didn't have to result in a shot ended up resulting in one. My contention is that Phaneuf getting demolished in the corner almost certainly results in a change of possession and one in a worse location for the team. Both plays have chances, emphasis, of resulting in a shot on the Leafs goal but the one after the hit is likely to be a better scoring chance.

 

[Bonsixx]

Very happy to get the point tonight trailing 4-1. That could have easily turned into another disaster.

Despite the last goal, I hope we can now move forward with Bernier for a little while without people feeling bad for Reimer. This was a huge chance for him to get back into the conversation and that first goal was terrible. I won't fault him so much for the other ones, though the second one was saveable. And well, to be fair, Bernier should've had the winner, but was otherwise solid.

 

[2badknees]

There's a flaw in that logic. The part where getting out of the way is a complete certainty of a loss of possession, while competing for it not.

No, the flaw is in the assumption that a change in possession will invariably result in a shot on goal. Your problem with the Phaneuf play is how a decision that didn't have to result in a shot ended up resulting in one. My contention is that Phaneuf getting demolished in the corner almost certainly results in a change of possession and one in a worse location for the team. Both plays have chances, emphasis, of resulting in a shot on the Leafs goal but the one after the hit is likely to be a better scoring chance.

Sorry, but you're wrong. You're cherry picking possible outcomes in which conceding possession as a certainty is a better play. Its not, and you won't convince too many coaches of it either.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Over on HFboards (Boston) people getting on Phaneuf for ducking Byfuglien's hit. I call it smart. Only a dummy would want to get hit by that 260 pound beast.

He ducked the hit, the puck went to the point, and they got a shot on net. When he's got the "C", and the contract he's got, he should have taken the hit along the boards and made the play.

And if he got hit the same thing would have happened.

 

[Kin]

You're cherry picking possible outcomes in which conceding possession as a certainty is a better play.

No, I'm saying that on odds it's the better play and when the actual result of the play is a fairly routine shot from the point I'm willing to chalk it up to the general sporting principle that is "no harm, no foul".

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

I'm pretty sure that the announcer just referred to Wayne Gretzky as the King of Kings. I know what he's getting at but, still...

I wonder what that makes Walter.

 

[moon111]

Montreal's playoff odds down 9.8 to 73.5%.
Detroit's playoff odds up 3.7 to 59.2%
Leaf's playoff odds up 2.5 to 45.1%

What scares me is two Florida games coming up.  When you really need the wins and you're facing a team that's out of it.  You lose.

 

[freer]

Montreal's playoff odds down 9.8 to 73.5%.
Detroit's playoff odds up 3.7 to 59.2%
Leaf's playoff odds up 2.5 to 45.1%

What scares me is two Florida games coming up.  When you really need the wins and you're facing a team that's out of it.  You lose.

Happy that we got the point. Goals from some one other then the first line is nice. I happy that Bernier came in to close the door, but in my mind, 4 of 5 goals should of been stopped, including the OT winner. Bodie should stay up when Clarkson gets back. I would of liked Orr to scored a goal just once this season.

 

[ZBBM]

Montreal's playoff odds down 9.8 to 73.5%.
Detroit's playoff odds up 3.7 to 59.2%
Leaf's playoff odds up 2.5 to 45.1%

Am I reading this right?  We are ahead of both of them in the standings yet our chances of getting in are 14?28% lower than theirs?  How does that make sense?  I recognize they have games in hand.

 

[bustaheims]

Am I reading this right?  We are ahead of both of them in the standings yet our chances of getting in are 14?28% lower than theirs?  How does that make sense?  I recognize they have games in hand.

They also hold the tie-breakers. Those percentages are also based on their schedules the rest of the way. They may have easier opponents.

 

[ZBBM]

Am I reading this right?  We are ahead of both of them in the standings yet our chances of getting in are 14?28% lower than theirs?  How does that make sense?  I recognize they have games in hand.

They also hold the tie-breakers. Those percentages are also based on their schedules the rest of the way. They may have easier opponents.

Got it, cheers!

 

[CarltonTheBear]

A couple of weeks ago I remember reading that the Leafs have one of the toughest schedules left in terms of opponents. I can't seem to find the source though.

 

[Deebo]

A couple of weeks ago I remember reading that the Leafs have one of the toughest schedules left in terms of opponents. I can't seem to find the source though.

I remember a Mirtle tweet saying that.

 

[bustaheims]

A couple of weeks ago I remember reading that the Leafs have one of the toughest schedules left in terms of opponents. I can't seem to find the source though.

They only play one team that looks like they're completely out of the playoff picture - Calgary in April - and there are quite a few games against teams like Tampa Bay, Boston, etc and a West Coast swing to visit 3 tough teams in Anaheim, LA and San Jose. There's also a lot of games against teams that they're fighting for a spot with - so, there will be some pretty big swings. They do have 3 games against Florida, but, the Leafs have struggled against the Panthers the past couple seasons. They control their own destiny, for the most part, but, they're going to have to actually show up every night from here on out.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

188 points in the last 184 games for Kessel, 194 pts in last 191 when playoffs are included.

 

[Spider]

188 points in the last 184 games for Kessel, 194 pts in last 191 when playoffs are included.

That's why he is getting paid the big money ;D

 

[hockeyfan1]

I'm pretty sure that the announcer just referred to Wayne Gretzky as the King of Kings. I know what he's getting at but, still...

I wonder what that makes Walter.

The Ace of Aces.

 

[moon111]

Am I reading this right?  We are ahead of both of them in the standings yet our chances of getting in are 14?28% lower than theirs?  How does that make sense?  I recognize they have games in hand.

They also hold the tie-breakers. Those percentages are also based on their schedules the rest of the way. They may have easier opponents.

Got it, cheers!

What's kind of sad about these stats is, they're usually right and that 'we'll make the playoffs optimism has usually been wrong.  Maybe Bolland's return will put them on the winning way?

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

188 points in the last 184 games for Kessel, 194 pts in last 191 when playoffs are included.

That's why he is getting paid the big money ;D

It's kind of crazy how little respect he seems to get league wide from the media, I mean the guy is absolutely elite, I wonder if it's because he is so reclusive.