Official Armchair GM Thread 2015-2016

[L K]

I'd think that the Leafs are hoping that the Marlies can graduate more than just Nylander for next year.  If he's the only guy that can make the jump, he'll be in for a pretty tough '16-'17 season that would look a lot like this year's team.  That can't image that that's a scenario that management would be excited about subjecting Nylander to...I think that's more of a worst case scenario.

I don't think that will play a huge role. Most top players come into the league on terrible teams.

Anyways, I think there's probably an upper limit on how many rookies/young players you want on a team at any one point but I don't think it's overly restrictive. I wouldn't be surprised to see 7-8 Marlies this year as Leafs regulars next year.

It's early, and there's lots of time for improvement...but man, I have trouble pegging 7 or 8 current Marlies that I think could make the jump in 10 months from now.

I mean, hypothetically if you were to assume the Leafs draft in the top 3 we could be looking at something like:

Nylander, Jones/Matthews, Soshnikov, Panik, Leivo, Percy in the NHL next year.  That's 6 guys coming up.  Not necessarily a good roster, but it's a bunch of guys getting into the NHL lineup and pushing out - Polak, Boyes, Grabner, Parenteau, Lupul, Clune.  You could maybe make an argument for one of Bailey/Hyman getting an opportunity too.  Potential for a lot of change, probably one more year of an abysmal team and then hopefully the start of a resurgence.

 

[Bullfrog]

I think Johnson might be a possibility too.

 

[Frank E]

Jones

I see what you did there...

I guess the list of guys that I'd keep an eye on then would be:

Nylander
Leivo
Leipsic
Soshnikov
Brown
Hyman
Bailey
Carrick

Loov
Percy

 

[L K]

Jones
I see what you did there...

He's starting to get comfortable in the OHL.  9 goals in 13 games.  He's not a center but if we don't draft #1, that's an awfully tempting meatball to insert on the wing with Marner/Nylander.

If I really want to be a shill.  Olli Juolevi.  Finnish defenseman.  6'2, can skate and has 12 points in 15 games to start his OHL career in London.  Or how about Matthew Tkachuk with 24 points in 15 games and an NHL bloodlines track record.  Or perhaps Victor Mete with 10 points in 15 games.  Great skater, a little on the small side but a kid from Woodbridge and projected in the latter end of the 1st round (asset from a deadline deal?).

I could do this all day. 

 

[bustaheims]

The top part of this year's draft is looking pretty good. I'd love for the Leafs to somehow get Alex Nylander on top of Matthews/Chychrun/Tkachuk/etc, but he'd likely have to drop fairly substantially for that to happen. He could also rise in the rankings making him more tempting for the Leafs. Lots of possibilities this early on.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

He's starting to get comfortable in the OHL.  9 goals in 13 games.  He's not a center but if we don't draft #1, that's an awfully tempting meatball to insert on the wing with Marner/Nylander.

If I really want to be a shill.  Olli Juolevi.  Finnish defenseman.  6'2, can skate and has 12 points in 15 games to start his OHL career in London.  Or how about Matthew Tkachuk with 24 points in 15 games and an NHL bloodlines track record.  Or perhaps Victor Mete with 10 points in 15 games.  Great skater, a little on the small side but a kid from Woodbridge and projected in the latter end of the 1st round (asset from a deadline deal?).

I could do this all day. 

Most rankings have Tkachuk going before Jones. Big left handed skater. Playing on a line with Marner right now and having success. Could set us up with a potential top line of Tkachuk-Nylander-Marner in the future. That sounds good.

Alex Nylander's performence in the O will likely really boost his draft stock. I could definitely see him going near the 5-8 spot like his brother was projected. It'll be interesting to see what the Leafs do if they finish say 4th and Tkachuk and Nylander are both available. Do they pick the guy connected to Marner or the guy connected to Nylander? Or does that even play a role at all?

 

[L K]

He's starting to get comfortable in the OHL.  9 goals in 13 games.  He's not a center but if we don't draft #1, that's an awfully tempting meatball to insert on the wing with Marner/Nylander.

If I really want to be a shill.  Olli Juolevi.  Finnish defenseman.  6'2, can skate and has 12 points in 15 games to start his OHL career in London.  Or how about Matthew Tkachuk with 24 points in 15 games and an NHL bloodlines track record.  Or perhaps Victor Mete with 10 points in 15 games.  Great skater, a little on the small side but a kid from Woodbridge and projected in the latter end of the 1st round (asset from a deadline deal?).

I could do this all day. 

Most rankings have Tkachuk going before Jones. Big left handed skater. Playing on a line with Marner right now and having success. Could set us up with a potential top line of Tkachuk-Nylander-Marner in the future. That sounds good.

Alex Nylander's performence in the O will likely really boost his draft stock. I could definitely see him going near the 5-8 spot like his brother was projected. It'll be interesting to see what the Leafs do if they finish say 4th and Tkachuk and Nylander are both available. Do they pick the guy connected to Marner or the guy connected to Nylander? Or does that even play a role at all?

All I can say is that the Leafs really better not be drafting outside the Top 3 but if they are, at least there is still a lot of Top 10 talent again this year.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

All I can say is that the Leafs really better not be drafting outside the Top 3 but if they are, at least there is still a lot of Top 10 talent again this year.

I think we're only out of the top-3 if the lottery results are disastrous for us. Which is definitely a possibility considering the Leafs luck. But yeah, a top-3 pick this year is critical. If we don't get Matthews we at least need Chychrun or Puljujarvi.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I'd think that the Leafs are hoping that the Marlies can graduate more than just Nylander for next year.  If he's the only guy that can make the jump, he'll be in for a pretty tough '16-'17 season that would look a lot like this year's team.  That can't image that that's a scenario that management would be excited about subjecting Nylander to...I think that's more of a worst case scenario.

I don't think that will play a huge role. Most top players come into the league on terrible teams.

Anyways, I think there's probably an upper limit on how many rookies/young players you want on a team at any one point but I don't think it's overly restrictive. I wouldn't be surprised to see 7-8 Marlies this year as Leafs regulars next year.

It's early, and there's lots of time for improvement...but man, I have trouble pegging 7 or 8 current Marlies that I think could make the jump in 10 months from now.

Do you take in a lot of Marlies games Frank?

Would be interesting to get some of your observations on guys in the prospect section. 

 

[Frank E]

I'd think that the Leafs are hoping that the Marlies can graduate more than just Nylander for next year.  If he's the only guy that can make the jump, he'll be in for a pretty tough '16-'17 season that would look a lot like this year's team.  That can't image that that's a scenario that management would be excited about subjecting Nylander to...I think that's more of a worst case scenario.

I don't think that will play a huge role. Most top players come into the league on terrible teams.

Anyways, I think there's probably an upper limit on how many rookies/young players you want on a team at any one point but I don't think it's overly restrictive. I wouldn't be surprised to see 7-8 Marlies this year as Leafs regulars next year.

It's early, and there's lots of time for improvement...but man, I have trouble pegging 7 or 8 current Marlies that I think could make the jump in 10 months from now.

Do you take in a lot of Marlies games Frank?

Would be interesting to get some of your observations on guys in the prospect section. 

I really don't Patrick.  Like many, I check the game recaps and stats, as well as the prospect section here!

I'm more assessing prospects based on statistics than watching the games, which I only get a chance to watch once in a while.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I really don't Patrick.  Like many, I check the game recaps and stats, as well as the prospect section here!

I'm more assessing prospects based on statistics than watching the games, which I only get a chance to watch once in a while.

Ah okay, it was just when you had said you didn't see guys who could make the Leafs, I thought that might have been based on seeing them play quite a bit is all.

Here's how I see the Marlies btw.

Could complete at the same level or better than current Leafs.

Corrado
Percy
Loov

Leivo
Panik
Leipsic
Brown
Hyman
Nylander
Soshnikov


(Probably need a little more seasoning.)

Valiev
Bailey
Kapanen


Not Really Prospects

Johnson
Holl
Frattin
Arcobello
Martin
Carrick
Brennan
Campbell

 

[Highlander]

Definitely Nylander, Brown,  Valiev, Loov perhaps Kapanen,. I would think that Johnson will go to the Marlies for at least a year leaving Sweden.  Kadri stays, not sure about Holland.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

So there is talk that Matt Duchene might be available. If so, would you trade Kadri and what would it take to even up?

 

[Kin]

I would assume that if Colorado is looking to move Duchene they'd probably be doing so with an eye towards strengthening themselves at other positions. As a result, I don't know if the Leafs have the pieces short of including guys I wouldn't trade for Duchene.

 

[Tigger]

So there is talk that Matt Duchene might be available. If so, would you trade Kadri and what would it take to even up?

I doubt he really is available, reminds me of the talk about Dustin Brown a few years ago.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

So there is talk that Matt Duchene might be available. If so, would you trade Kadri and what would it take to even up?

I'd do it straight up, maybe throw in a guy like Percy if they sent a decent pick back.

In terms of ability I don't think he is significantly better than Kadri.

 

[wnc096]

So there is talk that Matt Duchene might be available. If so, would you trade Kadri and what would it take to even up?

I'd do it straight up, maybe throw in a guy like Percy if they sent a decent pick back.

In terms of ability I don't think he is significantly better than Kadri.

Are we talking about the same Duchene that went to the Olympics on a stacked team Canada?  I think he's a
LITTLE bit better than Nazem Kadri.  On this team Duchene would be the best forward by a country mile

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

So there is talk that Matt Duchene might be available. If so, would you trade Kadri and what would it take to even up?

I'd do it straight up, maybe throw in a guy like Percy if they sent a decent pick back.

In terms of ability I don't think he is significantly better than Kadri.

Are we talking about the same Duchene that went to the Olympics on a stacked team Canada?  I think he's a
LITTLE bit better than Nazem Kadri.  On this team Duchene would be the best forward by a country mile

Duchene averages 0.16 more points per game than Kadri, this is despite playing on his teams' top PP unit, with his teams best players and getting to play on average 6.5 more minutes a game than Kadri over their careers.

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5v5 Kadri is actually a better possession player than Duchene, though marginally(0.5%), he has done it playing with absolute scrubs, until this year.

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Duchene is also a little worse off when you look at goals his team scores versus goals they concede 5v5 when he is on the ice at 50.8%, Kadri is at 51.9% in this category, again Kadri has done this playing with scrubs.

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Duchene at 24 years old is locked up for 4 more years at 6 million per, making him UFA at 28 while still in his prime.

Kadri at 25 is on a 1 year deal at 4.1 and then he will be a RFA.

Kadri will probably get a contract that comes under that mark and it'll probably take him through his prime at a reasonable rate.

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The point I'm trying to illustrate is that despite the media painting a very rosy picture of Matt Duchene, he isn't a significant upgrade over the player Nazem has been to this point in their careers and he certainly won't be now that Naz is getting top-line linemates and PP time.

The reason I'd entertain a trade is because Duchene is marginally younger and has cost certainty with that contract and to my knowledge he has had no "character issues".

I genuinely believe at least part of the reason Kadri isn't more highly regarded in this city is because of his background.

 

[bustaheims]

I genuinely believe at least part of the reason Kadri isn't more highly regarded in this city is because of his background.

That may be part of it, but I suspect a lot of it is also related to his performance in the lockout season creating unrealistic expectations of him that he's obviously never met. That's often enough for people to dismiss a player's accomplishments.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

I genuinely believe at least part of the reason Kadri isn't more highly regarded in this city is because of his background.

That may be part of it, but I suspect a lot of it is also related to his performance in the lockout season creating unrealistic expectations of him that he's obviously never met. That's often enough for people to dismiss a player's accomplishments.

I think his background has very little to do with it. I think it's more to do with the unrealistic expectations and the arrogance he appeared to have coming out of junior.