Official Armchair GM Thread 2015-2016

[Kin]

I appreciate wanting to be sensitive about these things but let's at the very least speak plainly. Nazem Kadri's "background" is that he was born in Canada and, by most accounts, lived a pretty standard Canadian life. If the accusation is that he's less well-regarded because of his ethnicity then I think that can be said fairly simply.

But also I think maybe some people should remember that as much as they might be all on board with the statistical revolution, there are a lot of people who stubbornly cling to judging players by things like goal and point totals and your various accolades like All-Star appearances.

Rage against the Luddites all you want but it's disingenuous to think that the vast majority of hockey fans don't lean that way.

 

[Kin]

Also, and while this may seem like I disagree with the premise strongly I don't think the difference between Duchene/Kadri is massive, the idea that Duchene has been producing his points with terrific linemates while Kadri has been doing it with scrubs and nobodies doesn't really stand-up.

Duchene's linemates have had some impressive names, sure, but it's not night and day. The three forwards Duchene seems to have played the most with at 5 on 5 have been Hejduk, O'Reilly and Jamie McGinn. Conversely as far as I can tell the three forwards Kadri has seen the most ice-time with in his career have been Lupul, Kessel and JVR.

 

[Tigger]

One area I'd say has some impact on Kadri's numbers was how he was sheltered early where I don't think Duchene was to the same degree.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Actually, you're right Nik, I probably overstated the point in calling them scrubs.

A selection of either the first or second most common 5v5 line-mates over the past four seasons.

14-15 Santorelli
13-14 Raymond
12-13 Kulemin
11-12 Connolly

14-15 Iginla
13-14 RoR
12-13 PaP
11-12 Stastny

I think the advantage is definitely with Duchene, especially when you consider he was getting about six minutes more per game on average and also playing on PP1 vs Kadri on PP2.

As for my comments about his ethnicity, it's based mainly on how I observe people's reactions to him on social media because obviously I'm not in the city so I don't see it first hand. Some of the stuff I saw written about him was so hateful, especially around last year when he was suspended.

Thanks for making me take a closer look at the data.

 

[Kin]

See, I think this is one of those classic pitfalls of analysis where what you're looking at depends so greatly on how you choose to look at it.

With your time frame, for instance, you're including the 2011-2012 season of Duchene's that looks like such a weird off year. If, for the sake of argument, you looked at the last three seasons(and the start of this one) a different picture emerges.

For instance, in this season and the three previous, the ice time advantage largely disappears:

Kadri: 3711(roughly) minutes in 215 games
Duchene: 4111 minutes(roughly) in 2016 games

However that's not entirely fair as Duchene got about 100 more minutes than Kadri did on the PK. So it's probably closer to a 300 minute advantage or about a minute and a half per game. There's not really a huge PP time difference either, with Kadri getting 514 minutes on the PP and Duchene getting 563.

And how did they produce in that time span?

Kadri: 57 goals, 139 points
Duchene: 68 goals, 179 points

So that's not an insignificant edge to Duchene. It's also reflected in their 5 on 5 points and goals per 60 numbers over that span:

Kadri: 106th in goals/60, 63rd in points/60
Duchene: 39th in goals/60, 13th in points/60

(I used a 1500 minute cutoff)

Now, you're probably right that in that stretch Duchene has gotten a bit more of a bump from his linemates than Kadri has. Not a ton, I don't think, but that's part of it.

Again, I like Kadri. But for Duchene to be at 13th in the entire league in points/60 puts him in pretty good company. He's ahead of guys like Tavares and Stamkos and just behind Evgeni Malkin. So he's produced at a pretty stellar rate with linemates that are good but not world beaters. Kadri's produced well too, and he's a good player, but so long as we sort of ignore the intermittently bumpy starts to their careers it's pretty clear that Duchene's been a better point producer and goal scorer than Kadri and by a fair margin. In fact, he ranks as pretty elite in those categories.

 

[Kin]

As for my comments about his ethnicity, it's based mainly on how I observe people's reactions to him on social media because obviously I'm not in the city so I don't see it first hand. Some of the stuff I saw written about him was so hateful, especially around last year when he was suspended.

For what's it worth, it's not that I'm disagreeing with you, just that I think you need to step back from your perspective a little bit on this one and take into account the way hockey players tend to perceived by the public at large. It's all well and good for people like us to look through point totals to CF% and get a more rounded sense of Kadri's true value but most fans thought process is going to be no more in-depth than "Kadri is struggling to crack 40 points".

Do I think that what you're saying has an element of truth to it? Yeah, some, but I think you can ascribe most of what you're talking about to a different sort of ignorance.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Thanks for the response again Nik, very interesting reading and you're right that the numbers tell a different story depending on how they're presented. Also thanks for the info regarding Duchene's comparables in terms of points/60, that certainly makes things look a little clearer.

I guess part of my frustration is that to some people it was entirely inconceivable that Kadri and Duchene could even be compared, despite the fact that I said I'd take Duchene. I think that is down to the fact that your "average fan" is basing things off a somewhat simplistic view of things, one that is constantly perpetuated by a very simplistic media, that wants to push an easy narrative.

 

[Tigger]

Looking at where some possible promotions could fit and maybe the start of next season ( Zaitsev might be here, might start ) without getting into unknown free agent signings and trades.

JVR            Kadri      Komarov
Lupul        Nylander  Brown
Soshnikov  Holland  Kapanen
Winnik        Froese    ?
?

Gardiner    Phaneuf
Hunwick    Rielly
Harrington (Zaitsev)
Loov        Corrado

Bernier
?

 

[mr grieves]

Looking at where some possible promotions could fit and maybe the start of next season ( Zaitsev might be here, might start ) without getting into unknown free agent signings and trades.

JVR            Kadri      Komarov
Lupul        Nylander  Brown
Soshnikov  Holland  Kapanen
Winnik        Froese    ?
?

Gardiner    Phaneuf
Hunwick    Rielly
Harrington (Zaitsev)
Loov        Corrado

Bernier
?

Wonder about Brown. Had a great rookie season, but he's the smallest of the bunch, no? Do they get longer in the minors to develop?

And I've read Kapanen might need for than this season with the Marlies, and, anyway, Matthews is AHL eligible and will need someone to play with...

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I think guys like Panik and Leivo will play before Brown and Kapanen.

In fact, I think you might see that Leivo-Willie-Panik line with the Leafs at some point this season.

 

[bustaheims]

I think guys like Panik and Leivo will play before Brown and Kapanen.

I think that's likely, too. They'll be the first in line to come up after players are moved at the deadline. Next season, they'll be the veteran placeholder types that give guys like Brown and Kapanen a little more time in the AHL to develop.

 

[Frank E]

I think guys like Panik and Leivo will play before Brown and Kapanen.

In fact, I think you might see that Leivo-Willie-Panik line with the Leafs at some point this season.

Lou & co. keep saying that you won't see the kids until they're ready for full-time NHL duty.

I doubt you see them this year...well, you could see Panik, it's the other 2 I'm talking about.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I think guys like Panik and Leivo will play before Brown and Kapanen.

In fact, I think you might see that Leivo-Willie-Panik line with the Leafs at some point this season.

Lou & co. keep saying that you won't see the kids until they're ready for full-time NHL duty.

I doubt you see them this year...well, you could see Panik, it's the other 2 I'm talking about.

If that line continues to produce at the rate it has, it'd be the Leafs second best line by a country mile.

 

[Kin]

I think it's more likely you see Marner with the Leafs next year than Kapanen or Brown.

 

[Tigger]

Wonder about Brown. Had a great rookie season, but he's the smallest of the bunch, no? Do they get longer in the minors to develop?

And I've read Kapanen might need for than this season with the Marlies, and, anyway, Matthews is AHL eligible and will need someone to play with...

I don't know, he's 21, I could see him getting a look this year but most of them are probably not going to see anything past a cup of coffee this season. I think his skating might be a bigger issue than his size, overall.

 

[Tigger]

I think guys like Panik and Leivo will play before Brown and Kapanen.

In fact, I think you might see that Leivo-Willie-Panik line with the Leafs at some point this season.

This year, yeah, although I'm not sure about Nylander being up for an extended time.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I think it's more likely you see Marner with the Leafs next year than Kapanen or Brown.

Nylander and Marner are the only two Marlies/prospects that I'd comfortably project being on next years team. Maybe Panik and Leivo too but they're sort of past the "prospect" point for me. Then I'd say that there will probably be one roster spot open for a Brown/Kapanen/Soshnikov type, a young guy with actual promise.

 

[Kin]

Nylander and Marner are the only two Marlies/prospects that I'd comfortably project being on next years team. Maybe Panik and Leivo too but they're sort of past the "prospect" point for me. Then I'd say that there will probably be one roster spot open for a Brown/Kapanen/Soshnikov type, a young guy with actual promise.

Matthews?

 

[bustaheims]

Nylander and Marner are the only two Marlies/prospects that I'd comfortably project being on next years team. Maybe Panik and Leivo too but they're sort of past the "prospect" point for me. Then I'd say that there will probably be one roster spot open for a Brown/Kapanen/Soshnikov type, a young guy with actual promise.

Matthews?

Cart....Horse?

 

[Kin]

Nylander and Marner are the only two Marlies/prospects that I'd comfortably project being on next years team. Maybe Panik and Leivo too but they're sort of past the "prospect" point for me. Then I'd say that there will probably be one roster spot open for a Brown/Kapanen/Soshnikov type, a young guy with actual promise.

Matthews?

Cart....Horse?

Where's he projected to go?