Ranking Prospects Post-Matthews

[Kin]

but what about some of the teams in the upper half of the league falling?

For instance...is this the year that detroit falls off a cliff?  what if chara is more awful this year and backes shows his age,  what if lundquist finally starts slowing down, what if montreal doesn't make the improvements that most people think they will this year, although it seems like philadelphia has figured things out they still have no goalie, is ottawa any better than last year?

anyways, my point being it might not have to be the bottom dwellers that the leafs leave in the dust but if 2 or three of the bottom dwellers climb at the expense of falling middling teams thats how they move up.

I mean, 2 years ago the kings missed the playoffs, that allowed winnipeg to make it.

is it that crazy to see detroit fallin out and having toronto make it instead?  Alot would have to right for toronto but its not comlpetely unthinkable.

Just to start with, I think you're wrong about the issues in Philly. Steve Mason, in his time there, has a .922 save percentage and Neuvirth is an excellent backup. Last year the Flyers were 8th in the league in Save Percentage and were middle of the pack in goals against. Their offense was a bigger problem(22nd in goals for).

As to the general bulk of your point, I think there's some merit there. Yes, some teams that are good will be less good and some teams that were bad will be less bad. That's what I mean about everyone being pushed to the middle. So, sure, it's easy to see Detroit potentially dropping out of a playoff spot but will they be markedly worse than the Leafs? There's no real reason to think that. Same with Boston. Teams don't tend to go from pretty good to completely terrible in the course of one year. Remember, the Leafs are looking to dig themselves out from the very bottom of the league.

I mean, look at your Kings example. Yes, the Kings missed the playoffs that one year but it's not because they fell off a cliff. Their record in the year they missed the playoffs was identical, even the exact same goal differential, as it was the year they won the cup in 11-12. They were only five points worse than the other year they'd won the cup. This year, they were only 7 points better. Those aren't wild swings. We're talking about the difference of a few games a year. Teams tend to find an equilibrium.

I'm sure there are some outliers where teams have gone from pretty good to terrible in a year or the other way around but I don't think that really changes what I was saying which is that you can't look at a team's improvements in isolation. Detroit has some reasons to be optimistic too(Larkin, Mrazek).

I'm not saying that the Leafs will for sure finish one place or another, just that the sorts of improvements we're talking about usually aren't immediate things. The Leafs have been sinking for a few years now, digging out of the hole will probably be a slow process. The Leafs will, just like last year, have some company at the bottom but it will take some time before they're clearly better than other teams.

 

[sneakyray]

but what about some of the teams in the upper half of the league falling?

For instance...is this the year that detroit falls off a cliff?  what if chara is more awful this year and backes shows his age,  what if lundquist finally starts slowing down, what if montreal doesn't make the improvements that most people think they will this year, although it seems like philadelphia has figured things out they still have no goalie, is ottawa any better than last year?

anyways, my point being it might not have to be the bottom dwellers that the leafs leave in the dust but if 2 or three of the bottom dwellers climb at the expense of falling middling teams thats how they move up.

I mean, 2 years ago the kings missed the playoffs, that allowed winnipeg to make it.

is it that crazy to see detroit fallin out and having toronto make it instead?  Alot would have to right for toronto but its not comlpetely unthinkable.

Just to start with, I think you're wrong about the issues in Philly. Steve Mason, in his time there, has a .922 save percentage and Neuvirth is an excellent backup. Last year the Flyers were 8th in the league in Save Percentage and were middle of the pack in goals against. Their offense was a bigger problem(22nd in goals for).

As to the general bulk of your point, I think there's some merit there. Yes, some teams that are good will be less good and some teams that were bad will be less bad. That's what I mean about everyone being pushed to the middle. So, sure, it's easy to see Detroit potentially dropping out of a playoff spot but will they be markedly worse than the Leafs? There's no real reason to think that. Same with Boston. Teams don't tend to go from pretty good to completely terrible in the course of one year. Remember, the Leafs are looking to dig themselves out from the very bottom of the league.

I mean, look at your Kings example. Yes, the Kings missed the playoffs that one year but it's not because they fell off a cliff. Their record in the year they missed the playoffs was identical, even the exact same goal differential, as it was the year they won the cup in 11-12. They were only five points worse than the other year they'd won the cup. This year, they were only 7 points better. Those aren't wild swings. We're talking about the difference of a few games a year. Teams tend to find an equilibrium.

I'm sure there are some outliers where teams have gone from pretty good to terrible in a year or the other way around but I don't think that really changes what I was saying which is that you can't look at a team's improvements in isolation. Detroit has some reasons to be optimistic too(Larkin, Mrazek).

I'm not saying that the Leafs will for sure finish one place or another, just that the sorts of improvements we're talking about usually aren't immediate things. The Leafs have been sinking for a few years now, digging out of the hole will probably be a slow process. The Leafs will, just like last year, have some company at the bottom but it will take some time before they're clearly better than other teams.

I think we're on the same page.  I do think they will be better than last year and if they are in the bottom 3-5 teams I will be dissapointed but likewise if they challenge for a playoff spot I will be thrilled with their improvement.  I expect they will be somewhere in the 7-10 range from the bottom.

 

[Kin]

Speaking of Dylan Larkin, I wasn't aware just how much his scoring fell off in the second half. Remember all the talk about his all-star nod proving something vis a vis the selection of Nylander? Post All-Star break Larkin had 12 points in 32 games and Nylander had 13 points in 22 games.

I'm sure someone has pointed that out before but it struck me as noteworthy.

 

[herman]

The forgotten Nikita had himself a good night.

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2016/10/01/watch-nikita-korostelevs-hat-trick-leads-sarnia-sting-7-4-win-ottawa/
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g9prjYTfNNw[/youtube]

 

[herman]

Jack Walker got some new hats.

http://vancouversun.com/sports/hockey/walkers-hat-trick-helps-royals-rule-giants-in-3-2-triumph
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQNU3VDOC8o[/youtube]

I wonder if there is any interest in converting him back to playing defense.

 

[herman]

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2016/10/06/lou-lamoriello-talking-leafs-prospects-j-d-greenway-travis-dermott-jeremy-bracco/

I imagine this conversation to have taken place during a sleepover, them asking Lou to dish on the latest Leaf gossip, and which player he likes best... possibly playing MASH.

TLR; Lou called Dermott fat.

 

[herman]

A good article about the one pick in 2015 that I had the most questions about:
http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-prospects/2016/10/7/13200268/toronto-maple-leafs-prospect-desrocher-in-charge-of-inexperienced-frontenacs-team

Beyond this write up, Desrocher also notes how much the Leafs system changes year over year. Apparently we trend track and adjust as the league shifts.

 

[herman]

Nikita Korostelev at it again: https://streamable.com/dul7
You may need a moment after this.

http://www.ontariohockeyleague.com/video-channels/highlights/oct-716-sar-6-kit-5-so
He and Bracco both had 3-point nights.

 

[Kin]

That's very much an OHL goal but dang if it isn't a pretty one.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I'm not sure that there's been a 7th round pick that made us as excited as Nikita Korostelev did when he was drafted. Unfortunately his D+1 season was a pretty big disappointment. He's a pretty massive long-shot at this point but hopefully he has a big D+2 year.

edit: Hey, apparently Stralman, Gunnarsson, and Johnsson were all 7th round picks.

 

[herman]

I'm not sure that there's been a 7th round pick that made us as excited as Nikita Korostelev did when he was drafted. Unfortunately his D+1 season was a pretty big disappointment. He's a pretty massive long-shot at this point but hopefully he has a big D+2 year.

edit: Hey, apparently Stralman, Gunnarsson, and Johnsson were all 7th round picks.

Thommie Bergman is magic.

Of the 2015 draft, Lindgren, Desrocher, and Korostelev were the only ones not getting much accolades. Lindgren largely because he's playing on a Jr. SHL team, and Desrocher/Korostelev for not doing much exciting last year.

This year, Korostelev is lighting up the OHL (4GP/6G/3A/9P) so far coming out of Leafs camp. He's skating much better, and his skills are shining through. Desrocher is with the Frontenacs and getting much more involved in putting the Leafs development plan into practice.

 

[bustaheims]

You don't see that kind of backhand shot much anymore. Not with that kind of power or accuracy.

 

[herman]

Korostelev had another big game last night. 2 slick goals and a shootout goal. 11pts in 5 games (8G).

http://sarniasting.com/video/oct-816-pbo-2-sar-3-so

 

[Highlander]

Man we have gone from zero to oozing with talent. This guy wants in.  Get Clooney

 

[herman]

Bracco is not content to let Korostelev get all the recent glory. He potted his first hat trick this afternoon in a 5-point effort towards an 8-4 victory.

http://kitchenerrangers.com/video/highlights-storm-vs-rangers-oct-10th-2016

He's 3 games into his season following Leafs Camp. 5 goals, 4 assists. He looks like Marner-lite out there.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Quinn MacKeen ‏@quinnesq
Leaf pick Korshkov is #1 in KHL scoring for those 20 or younger; 2nd overall in scoring on his team & has 9 points in last 8 games. Rolling.

I'm not quite yet ready to admit that a professional scouting staff led by Mark Hunter knew prospects better than ME, a guy who never heard of this player before he was drafted, but it's at least nice to see him producing.

#StillwouldapickedSamuelGirardthough

 

[herman]

Korostelev up to 10G/3A in 8GP.
Bracco at 5G/4A in 3GP. 6G/6A in 4GP.
Dzierkals at 4G/5A in 5GP. 4G/6A in 6GP.

 

[herman]

Update on our CHL prospects currently at 1.0 PPG or more

Bracco: 6G/11A/17pts in 6 GP
Korostelev: 10G/3A/13pts in 8 GP
Dzierkals: 6G/6A/12pts in 7 GP

Brooks: 3G/4A/7pts in 3 GP
Walker: 5G/3A/8pts in 8 GP

 

[LuncheonMeat]

Update on our CHL prospects currently at 1.0 PPG or more

Bracco: 6G/11A/17pts in 6 GP
Korostelev: 10G/3A/13pts in 8 GP
Dzierkals: 6G/6A/12pts in 7 GP

Brooks: 3G/4A/7pts in 3 GP
Walker: 5G/3A/8pts in 8 GP

Man, Korostelev keeps banging the goals in. Nice start by Bracco as well.

 

[herman]

Short of having a Standard Player Contract, Bracco is actually eligible for playing on the Marlies this year alongside his draft cohort (Dermott, Timashov, Nielsen) because he was drafted out of the US college program, rather than the CHL.

He is tearing up the OHL at the moment; I think management wants him to build his portfolio (and size) in Juniors rather than potentially getting boxed out in the AHL by the likes of Clune, Greening, Laich. He's only topped out at 49 games in one season (+5 college games) last season, so it would be good to see how sustainable his play is over the course of a full junior season.

Here's to hoping he Marners the CHL this year.