Ranking Prospects Post-Matthews

[Kin]

True dat Nik, Brown and several of the others should be on the big team and have mentorship from JVR, Komarov and Laitch.

First of all, true dat? Come on.

Second, Komarov is pretty high on my list of guys who probably shouldn't be on the roster. Laich is also albeit I think the team did well in that deal and don't mind it as much.

 

[caver]

Some of these guys need a chance to perform at the NHL level now...can this management team make the moves to do it ? Short of giving away players with some value to create room ? Training camp should be interesting...

 

[Highlander]

I do that in honour of my son Nikos.  Come on Komarov is a favorite of Babcock and shows the way by grit and effort. And he can put the puck in the net

 

[Kin]

There are "reasons" for lots of guys to be on the roster. But somehow we've wound up in a spot where there are 9 or 10 roster spots just among forwards for guys who've been around a while and aren't likely to be around long term. You shouldn't keep Komarov and Laich and Martin around for effectively the same purpose while we're talking about sending 22 or 23 year old prospects back to the AHL.

 

[Highlander]

Agreed thats why I would love to see them move out Bozak and Lupul and perhaps trade JVR for a great pick.

 

[herman]

PPP: 4. Morgan Rielly

Colour me slightly surprised they went there, but this is reflective of my own list.
Burtch even had Rielly 5th after his Zaitsev vote.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ppWoV0gvErE[/youtube]

I think this is pretty much why we're generally a little bit more down on Rielly lately, slightly unfairly to him:

Bottom line: playing off-handed is really challenging, and has a serious impact on a defender's shot differentials.  Rielly's extended time as a lefty playing right-side is very probably hurting his shots against.  Partner and playing side are at least part of what's wrong for Rielly, and if we can find a suitable RHD partner for him, as Arvind suggests, that will go a long way towards fixing things.

Combined with his position being harder to learn, the Leafs bungling his development early on, and playing through the Carlyle years, we definitely haven't seen peak-Rielly yet, but it looks like it'll be raelly good.

 

[Kin]

Agreed thats why I would love to see them move out Bozak and Lupul and perhaps trade JVR for a great pick.

Best case scenarios, like being able to move Lupul's deal, are lovely to think about I'm sure but realistically the team had to make smarter decisions regarding their more movable pieces in order to fit more young players into their bottom 6.

 

[herman]

Do you think our weird roster decisions and general Marlie suppression might have something to do with the expansion draft?

 

[Kin]

Do you think our weird roster decisions and general Marlie suppression might have something to do with the expansion draft?

It could, I suppose, but given that you lose one player at most in the draft it's really hard for me to see a scenario where the relative edge you gain there is worth it.

I think there are more straightforward reasons for why they've built the team as they have. Also, I've got a half-formed theory that speaks to the amorphous management structure and how this team is a result of it.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Do you think our weird roster decisions and general Marlie suppression might have something to do with the expansion draft?

In what way? We already know who is and isn't exempt from the draft. Where guys like Soshnikov, Hyman, Brown, and Leipsic play won't effect that at this point.

 

[herman]

Do you think our weird roster decisions and general Marlie suppression might have something to do with the expansion draft?

In what way? We already know who is and isn't exempt from the draft. Where guys like Soshnikov, Hyman, Brown, and Leipsic play won't effect that at this point.

It could, I suppose, but given that you lose one player at most in the draft it's really hard for me to see a scenario where the relative edge you gain there is worth it.

Less about protecting those graduate-ready prospects, and more about having enough middling players fulfilling the draft requirements to choose from, considering each candidate has to reach 40 games played (or 70 the past two). Sort of taking advantage of this projected water treading season by loading up on chaff to draw fire.

 

[Kin]

Less about protecting those graduate-ready prospects, and more about having enough middling players fulfilling the draft requirements to choose from, considering each candidate has to reach 40 games played (or 70 the past two). Sort of taking advantage of this projected water treading season by loading up on chaff to draw fire.

I don't think it's that each exposed player has to reach that mark, just that a few do

Player Exposure Requirements:
* All Clubs must meet the following minimum requirements regarding players exposed for selection in the Expansion Draft:

i) One defenseman who is a) under contract in 2017-18 and b) played in 40 or more NHL games the prior season OR played in 70 or more NHL games in the prior two seasons.

ii) Two forwards who are a) under contract in 2017-18 and b) played in 40 or more NHL games the prior season OR played in 70 or more NHL games in the prior two seasons.

https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-expansion-draft-rules/c-281010592

It seems like the Leafs would pretty comfortably hit that requirement regardless so long as you've got a couple of scrub regulars around. The Leafs will lose their best unprotected player so having a bunch of bad unprotected players doesn't seem to impact who they lose one way or the other.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

And most of the "middling" players that we have who will potentially be taking playing time from younger players (Michalek, Greening, Laich) are UFAs after this season, so they won't help us reach any requirements for the draft unless the Leafs re-sign them (which they better not).

 

[herman]

I don't think it's that each exposed player has to reach that mark, just that a few do

Player Exposure Requirements:
* All Clubs must meet the following minimum requirements regarding players exposed for selection in the Expansion Draft:

i) One defenseman who is a) under contract in 2017-18 and b) played in 40 or more NHL games the prior season OR played in 70 or more NHL games in the prior two seasons.

ii) Two forwards who are a) under contract in 2017-18 and b) played in 40 or more NHL games the prior season OR played in 70 or more NHL games in the prior two seasons.

https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-expansion-draft-rules/c-281010592

It seems like the Leafs would pretty comfortably hit that requirement regardless so long as you've got a couple of scrub regulars around. The Leafs will lose their best unprotected player so having a bunch of bad unprotected players doesn't seem to impact who they lose one way or the other.

Oh yeah? That changes things nicely then. The only conceivable reason I can think of for a team to load up on scrubs would be to steer Vegas into picking a higher cap hit player who is servicably better (i.e. Bozak or Lupul).

 

[herman]

And most of the "middling" players that we have who will potentially be taking playing time from younger players (Michalek, Greening, Laich) are UFAs after this season, so they won't help us reach any requirements for the draft unless the Leafs re-sign them (which they better not).

Those three I see as a cost-of-doing-business type of contract. Their remaining utility is as character development and straw ceilings for prospects to bust through. I am hoping they get vastly outplayed and at least two are buried in the minors so their cap savings could pay for Zaitsev, Corrado and a couple of team meals. I don't even care if no picks are recouped.

 

[herman]

PPP: 3. Mitch Marner

Nylander's pro experience (and success) is what kept Marner down to number 3. Really excited to see how Marner's game translates to the NHL and Babcock's system. Babcock's defensive system is very straight forward, and very positionally driven, all with the goal for creating opportunities and opening up options for our more creative players driving play towards the opposing net. Marner embodies that type of game.

I liked this note:

Is Marner a centre or a winger, though? He played a lot of centre on the Knights before his final year, but he is almost certainly going to end up at wing on the Leafs, just given that the competition for the top centre's job is a little tougher. But as a winger capable of playmaking in the offensive zone, like Nylander is as well, no one should expect him to be a passenger on any line, not once he gets his skates under him.

There is a meaningful difference between the two positions. Centres make more money, get drafted higher, have more trade value and are often considered the backbone of a team because of their greater responsibilities on the ice.

But the difference is shrinking. Here is Carolina Hurricanes' coach (and former Mike Babcock prot?g?) Bill Peters talking about a similar "problem" he has.

"I know exactly where I see Teravainen slotting in. I have Aho, Lindholm and Teravainen," said Peters. "Now, where they go, I don?t know. Lindy played a little center for us last year, at the end of the year, and was very good. Teravainen was very successful in Chicago playing the off-wing, as a right winger. He also has some ability to play center. I think that?s going to be a line. That way, one guy can take faceoffs on the right side in the ?D? zone and the other guy can take faceoffs on the left side in the ?D? zone and all three are responsible defensively.

So, the Leafs have Auston Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Nazem Kadri and James van Riemsdyk who will all, eventually, be high level, playmaking, goal scoring forwards, four of whom have experience at centre. That seems like a problem that isn't a problem at all.

 

[sneakyray]

Babcock talked about having way too many guys for spots on the team and I think the leafs are getting there. 

I really don't see michalek or laich or greening as counting towards that.  I take Babcock to mean having more young and in their prime players than you need.

So I think that saying its a bad thing if brown isn't on the team...well I don't necessarily agree.  At face value it should mean that he was ouplayed and so he starts in the minors.

that being said I do feel that this might be the last year we see some players playing in order to be traded or just to keep the younger, waiver eligible on the club.  But I also wouldn't be surprised if a guy like michalek is "injured" or if some of the other short term vets mysteriously disappear and can't play for most of the season.

So for me, 2017/2018 is the season where a middling veteran shouldn't make the team over a guy that needs pro experience.

 

[Bullfrog]

Lupul needs 24 games this year to hit those marks, though given his injury history and cap hit, not sure the expansion team would be interested. Bozak, Martin, and Komarov fit the bill.

 

[herman]

Mitch Marner racing back on defence and sprawling out to block a shot is the best thing I've seen at summer skate so far
? Kristen Shilton (@kristen_shilton) September 7, 2016

Sounds familiar.

His assistant coach Rob Simpson had this to say in that same report:

Earlier this season, London was down 2?1, pushing to tie things up, when four players got caught deep in the offensive end. Marner was on the opposing team?s goal line when a two-on-one materialized the other way. He backchecked, caught up, slid from the hash marks and deflected the puck away. "That?s something you don?t always see from high-end players, that commitment to defence. It shows his will to win," Simpson says.

 

[herman]

PPP: 2. William Nylander

With Phil no longer in Blue and White, Nylander will be picking up the slack on filthy snipes. Watch him float into the top of the circles like a gliding ninja and just sling it as he crosses the middle.

What is lacking (and what keeps him from Number 1) are his defense and probably his lackadaisical appearance on the ice without the puck. I'd say his stickchecking is underrated, and he just doesn't look like he's putting effort in, even when he's blazing past other skaters for a casual looking takeaway, compared to the head-down all-out effort that Hyman looks like he puts in all the time, or the waterbug skippy stride of Kapanen, or the wrecking ball game that Soshnikov plays.