Ranking Prospects Post-Matthews

[herman]

Pronman explained in more detail why he preferred Laine over Matthews when his draft rankings came out a few months ago, there'd be no reason for that to have changed since then.

ICYMI: Here's his explanation pre-draft.

PLAYER		SKATING		PUCK SKILLS		OFF. IQ		DEF. IQ		SHOT		PHYSICAL GAME
Auston Matthews		60		70		60		55		65		55
Patrik Laine		50		65		70		45		75		65
Connor McDavid		75		75		75		60		55		45
Jack Eichel		60		65		65		60		60		55
Sam Reinhart		50		60		70		65		55		45
Nathan McKinnon		80		65		60		50		55		50

This is the table that's all mashed up in that copy/paste that I pulled out into more of a table. The average scores (if each category was weighted equally) aren't listed, but Pronman has them in this order: McDavid, Laine, Matthews/Eichel, McKinnon, Reinhart.

 

[herman]

PPP: 7. Connor Carrick
TLN: 2. Mitch Marner

I like Connor Carrick, and I'm glad the Capitals flubbed his development a bit so that we ended up getting him for a song. His flaws are very fixable, and I think he has the potential to be a top 4 D-man. I see hints of Vatanen, but not as polished yet on the defensive side (because he's usually taking it to the other zone).

Mitch Marner has played the past two OHL seasons on Easy Mode. 3 min shifts because his engine can go there regularly. Highlight dangles and passes and goals because the rest of the skaters on the ice are 4 steps behind him (usually literally, not just mentally). He keeps track of every player on the ice and where they are going (and where they want to go) and breaks down the opposition by finding their natural seams and gaps in coverage. He has the wheels and hands to do what his brain asks (similar to Matthews).

Watching him play, sometimes he looks pass first even when he himself is the more surefire option. I think this might be because the game was too easy for him and he wanted to give his teammates opportunities.

Will it translate to the NHL? I think so. There'll be a learning curve for the next year or two, but he'll get there. Marner doesn't know how to give up.

 

[hockeyfan1]

Pronman explained in more detail why he preferred Laine over Matthews when his draft rankings came out a few months ago, there'd be no reason for that to have changed since then.

ICYMI: Here's his explanation pre-draft.

PLAYER		SKATING		PUCK SKILLS		OFF. IQ		DEF. IQ		SHOT		PHYSICAL GAME
Auston Matthews		60		70		60		55		65		55
Patrik Laine		50		65		70		45		75		65
Connor McDavid		75		75		75		60		55		45
Jack Eichel		60		65		65		60		60		55
Sam Reinhart		50		60		70		65		55		45
Nathan McKinnon		80		65		60		50		55		50

This is the table that's all mashed up in that copy/paste that I pulled out into more of a table. The average scores (if each category was weighted equally) aren't listed, but Pronman has them in this order: McDavid, Laine, Matthews/Eichel, McKinnon, Reinhart.

"Higher floor" (Matthews) or "higher ceiling" (Laine).  Which would you have chosen?

In spite of Pronman's comparisons using certain analytical data, I believe that Matthews was and is the best choice that will befitt the Leafs.  True, Laine has that something special that Matthews doesn't, and Matthews has that something that Laine doesn't.  But, for the Leafs and considering their needs, plus the fact that they harbour an array of smart offensive producers in Nylander, Soshnukov, etc., etc., Matthews' unique skill levels as a centre is something they lack in that true sense of "something special".

So, again, Pronman's comparables, while appreciated, cannot be applied to the Matthews/Laine category as pertaining to the Leafs per se.

 

[herman]

"Higher floor" (Matthews) or "higher ceiling" (Laine).  Which would you have chosen?

In spite of Pronman's comparisons using certain analytical data, I believe that Matthews was and is the best choice that will befitt the Leafs.  True, Laine has that something special that Matthews doesn't, and Matthews has that something that Laine doesn't.  But, for the Leafs and considering their needs, plus the fact that they harbour an array of smart offensive producers in Nylander, Soshnukov, etc., etc., Matthews' unique skill levels as a centre is something they lack in that true sense of "something special".

So, again, Pronman's comparables, while appreciated, cannot be applied to the Matthews/Laine category as pertaining to the Leafs per se.

Yup. Matthews is the best pick for the Leafs. Laine is the better (potential) player overall in Pronman's researched opinion. Most draft ranking prognosticators ignore the draft order when forming their lists because the order can be fluid.

Personally, I think Matthews does more for his team than Laine (especially during a scoring slump). Matthews doesn't have Laine's electric scoring dazzle because he is actually patrolling the ice for opportunity, rather than simply waiting in his go-to spot for his teammates to feed him the puck.

 

[jdh1]

If Matthews becomes a point a game player in his prime years,that will fill a important position on the team,that's being lacking for years.I'll take the center position over winger.

 

[Kin]

Not that the issue of Matthews vs. Laine means much to me, I'm good with the decision the Leafs made, but it does seem like the night of the draft lottery is the night some people went from "I'm really looking forward to Nylander and Marner as our C's of the future" to "Marner and Nylander can't possibly play C at the next level".

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I think that Marner playing centre was always a bit of a pipe dream by Leafs fans (myself included). Maybe it was brought on somewhat by the fact that despite Marner's incredible talent lots of fans had their eyes on a 1C (Strome) or 1D (Hanifn) that year, so to come away with a winger was a tad disappointing. And of course the Leafs fuelled it themselves by keeping the door open a little bit. But when he returned to the OHL post-draft and the Knights kept him on the wing I think that really sealed the deal. I really can't think of any player to go from primarily playing the wing in junior to being a full-time centre in the NHL.

 

[Kin]

Anyway, the positional need argument strikes me as being as bogus now as it was when people were making it for Hanifin vs. Marner. The Leafs aren't in a hurry and don't have a surplus of talent anywhere. If Laine were really and truly the better prospect, he's the smarter pick. I just don't think that's true in this case.

Fun fact: post lockout the Hart Trophy breakdown by position is 5 for Centers, 5 for Wingers and 1 for Goalies.

 

[mr grieves]

Steve Dangle posted about hating lists, wanting to swap them for tiers. In so far as tiers make us think about how to define cut-offs and broader categories, think they're worth doing. Here's my shot at it:

Forwards
Tier 1 -- projects as superstar/ franchise forward = Matthews
Tier 2 -- projects as star/ top-line scoring forward = Marner, Nylander
Tier 3 -- projects as useful middle-6 contributor = Brown, Johnson, Kapanen, Leivo [tho I think he might be the new Frattin]
Tier 4 -- looks good, too little pro hockey to project = Bracco, Timashov
Tier 5 -- projects as bottom-6 NHLer = Gauthier, Grundstrum, Hyman, Korshkov, Leipsic, Lindberg, Soshnikov, Rychel 
Tier 6 -- no idea what this player might be = Brooks, Dzierkals, Lindgren, Piccinich, others

Defensemen
Tier 1 -- projects as #1 / franchise Dman = [none]
Tier 2 -- projects as top-pairing Dman = [none]
Tier 3 -- projects as top-four Dman = Carrick, Zaitsev
Tier 4 -- looks top-4, too little pro hockey to say = Dermott, Nielsen
Tier 5 -- projects as bottom-pairing NHLer = Corrado, Loov, Valiev
Tier 6 -- no idea what this player might be = J.D. Greenway, others

link: http://theleafsnation.com/2016/9/1/the-prospect-pyramid

 

[Bullfrog]

for a sobering thought, you should do that for the goalie prospects.

 

[herman]

PPP: 6. Nikita Zaitsev
TLN: 1. Auston Matthews

I have a hard time assessing Zaitsev since I've only seen his highlights, which are basically just him scoring from everywhere, or threading a pass for a tap in. What are his retrieval instincts like? How is his gap control through the neutral zone? Skating is good to great. Offensive instincts are quite polished already.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

PPP: 6. Nikita Zaitsev
TLN: 1. Auston Matthews

From the PPP article:

Suffice it to say, I see no reason to be worried about Zaitsev's probable output in the NHL offensively.  At the lower end he projects as a top 90 D man in the NHL (top 3) offensively. If he hits his projected totals from the past two years he would be providing top pair offense, and if he continues to develop as an NHLer he's going to be an All-Star.

I mean I'm hopeful Zaitsev turns into a legit NHLer and from all the scouting reports and stuff he sounds like a really promising player, but it seems like we're going into this season with awfully high expectations for him and his career.

 

[sneakyray]

PPP: 6. Nikita Zaitsev
TLN: 1. Auston Matthews

From the PPP article:

Suffice it to say, I see no reason to be worried about Zaitsev's probable output in the NHL offensively.  At the lower end he projects as a top 90 D man in the NHL (top 3) offensively. If he hits his projected totals from the past two years he would be providing top pair offense, and if he continues to develop as an NHLer he's going to be an All-Star.

I mean I'm hopeful Zaitsev turns into a legit NHLer and from all the scouting reports and stuff he sounds like a really promising player, but it seems like we're going into this season with awfully high expectations for him and his career.

I remember stephen burtch on twitter talking about his nhl/khl comparables and that he should pretty comfortably be a top nhl point producing d-man due to his shot totals...its all analytics 

 

[Frank E]

I mean I'm hopeful Zaitsev turns into a legit NHLer and from all the scouting reports and stuff he sounds like a really promising player, but it seems like we're going into this season with awfully high expectations for him and his career.

What are you talking about?  High expectations for Leaf prospects by Leaf fans?

That's ridiculous. 

Zaitsev will probably end up being a cross between Ray Bourque and Vladimir Konstantinov...but he ain't no Nik Lidstrom.

 

[herman]

TLN list complete.

PPP list down to the final 5, which, based on their ranking tendancy to favour pro experience with about half their voters, I'm guessing might be:
5. Connor Brown
4. Mitch Marner
3. William Nylander
2. Morgan Rielly
1. Auston Matthews

 

[Zee]

I mean I'm hopeful Zaitsev turns into a legit NHLer and from all the scouting reports and stuff he sounds like a really promising player, but it seems like we're going into this season with awfully high expectations for him and his career.

What are you talking about?  High expectations for Leaf prospects by Leaf fans?

That's ridiculous. 

Zaitsev will probably end up being a cross between Ray Bourque and Vladimir Konstantinov...but he ain't no Nik Lidstrom.

Wonder what the plan is for Connor Brown. He ripped it up in Junior, looked pretty decent in a few games with the Leafs. Nobody really seems to talk about him that much.

 

[Kin]

Wonder what the plan is for Connor Brown. He ripped it up in Junior, looked pretty decent in a few games with the Leafs. Nobody really seems to talk about him that much.

I get the sense that most people see him as a boom or bust type. Someone who might turn into an effective NHL scorer but could be a tweener.

If I had to guess I think he'll spend a good amount of time in the team's bottom 6.

 

[herman]

PPP: 5. Connor Brown

His waiver exempt status will be what likely starts him in the AHL, as one of the Big 3 on the Marlies (Kapanen, Johnson). I expect two of these three to be over-ripened bananas by the deadline and will get the call.

 

[Kin]

Brown not being on the team to start the year would really be one of those things where you can't help but feel the team has maybe over-thought themselves into the roster as currently constructed. Right now there are too many guys on the team who don't figure to be in the team's long term plans and way too many guys projected to start on the Marlies that should probably be with the big club.

 

[Highlander]

True dat Nik, Brown and several of the others should be on the big team and have mentorship from JVR, Komarov and Laitch.