So the debate begins: Matthews vs. Laine

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Perry should be suspended for that trip on Laine, that was so cheap.

It's also pretty embarrassing how much Canada have been gooning it up in the third here in an attempt to play "tough".

 

[rdowdall]

http://www.tsn.ca/examining-the-true-value-of-toronto-s-first-overall-pick-1.491169

You know, because why not.

 

[Kin]

So here's something I've been thinking about. The draft that this Laine-Matthews question keeps making me think about is the 2001 draft. I've brought it up before with context to the way that someone who's a consensus #1 can drop to #2 not because of bad scouting but just because another player really emerges.

So in that context, if you know the kinds of players they'll be(that is to say, ignoring Kovalchuk and the KHL stuff) would you take an 18 year old Spezza over a 18 year old Kovalchuk? Spezza's basically been a PPG C over the course of a 14 year career and is good on face-offs and so on whereas Kovalchuk obviously grew into the more dynamic goal scorer and probably the guy we all think of as being the better player.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

http://www.tsn.ca/examining-the-true-value-of-toronto-s-first-overall-pick-1.491169

You know, because why not.

I really wanted to tell him to stick adjGP where the sun doesn't shine by about half-way through that.

There is not one of those proposals that would be even considered in the real world, he needs to step away from the calculator and go watch a game, damn.

 

[rdowdall]

So here's something I've been thinking about. The draft that this Laine-Matthews question keeps making me think about is the 2001 draft. I've brought it up before with context to the way that someone who's a consensus #1 can drop to #2 not because of bad scouting but just because another player really emerges.

So in that context, if you know the kinds of players they'll be(that is to say, ignoring Kovalchuk and the KHL stuff) would you take an 18 year old Spezza over a 18 year old Kovalchuk? Spezza's basically been a PPG C over the course of a 14 year career and is good on face-offs and so on whereas Kovalchuk obviously grew into the more dynamic goal scorer and probably the guy we all think of as being the better player.

I don't know who I would pick in that case.  Living in Ottawa I have had to listen to a tonne of Spezza bashing over the years due to his lack of defensive acumen.  So I am not sure if that bias would come in to play while making that judgement. 

Here's a question though, would Atlanta have been better off picking Spezza in the long run?  They had Heatley, and we know they formed a dynamic duo for a while in Ottawa.  Would that have made Atlanta a better team than picking Kovalchuk?

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

http://www.tsn.ca/examining-the-true-value-of-toronto-s-first-overall-pick-1.491169

You know, because why not.

I really wanted to tell him to stick adjGP where the sun doesn't shine by about half-way through that.

There is not one of those proposals that would be even considered in the real world, he needs to step away from the calculator and go watch a game, damn.

This is the real world and he probably watches more games than any of us.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

http://www.tsn.ca/examining-the-true-value-of-toronto-s-first-overall-pick-1.491169

You know, because why not.

Using this to look at the value of the Leafs trade offer to Columbus at last years draft (guessing a little on the value of the 2nd rounders based on the examples in the article):

4th overall (289) for 8th (239), 34th (135), 38th (125), 58th (95)

So that's 289 on our side and 594 on Columbus' side.

I'm sure Dubas has some sort of methodology set up to look at pick valuation, but this probably isn't it.

 

[Bullfrog]

What an asinine way to evaluate a pick. None of those proposals is even remotely worth any value. Nor do they consider overall value to a team, available roster spots, etc. The games played is a function of the skill of the players, not a currency.

 

[jonlleafs]

http://www.tsn.ca/examining-the-true-value-of-toronto-s-first-overall-pick-1.491169

You know, because why not.

Winnepeg's 1st rounder and a 4th for the 1st overall?  Yeah no thanks.  These scenarios are ridiculous and I would never agree to any of them especially Philly's.  Quantity does not equal quality and Matthews, while still a risk, is more of a sure thing than anything you could gamble with in the 2nd round, 3rd round, or 5th round.

 

[crazyperfectdevil]

http://www.tsn.ca/examining-the-true-value-of-toronto-s-first-overall-pick-1.491169

You know, because why not.

I really wanted to tell him to stick adjGP where the sun doesn't shine by about half-way through that.

There is not one of those proposals that would be even considered in the real world, he needs to step away from the calculator and go watch a game, damn.

This is the real world and he probably watches more games than any of us.

regardless of how many games he's seen I think this is an insane oversimplification of what draft picks are worth..like the leafs have a lot of picks...i'm sure we can just cobble enough 2nd 3rd and 4th rounders to pry laine off winnipeg right?

 

[Kin]

I'd hazard a guess that the average game played by a #1 pick involves generally contributing more to the outcome of a game than a game played by the aggregated players at any other draft position. Just getting a NHL player isn't the aim of a #1 pick.

 

[bustaheims]

I'd hazard a guess that the average game played by a #1 pick involves generally contributing more to the outcome of a game than a game played by the aggregated players at any other draft position. Just getting a NHL player isn't the aim of a #1 pick.

Yeah. Games played is a pretty flimsy metric to base player value on.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

http://www.tsn.ca/examining-the-true-value-of-toronto-s-first-overall-pick-1.491169

You know, because why not.

I really wanted to tell him to stick adjGP where the sun doesn't shine by about half-way through that.

There is not one of those proposals that would be even considered in the real world, he needs to step away from the calculator and go watch a game, damn.

This is the real world and he probably watches more games than any of us.

regardless of how many games he's seen I think this is an insane oversimplification of what draft picks are worth..like the leafs have a lot of picks...i'm sure we can just cobble enough 2nd 3rd and 4th rounders to pry laine off winnipeg right?

Well I never said it was legit, just that it's not a result of not watching the games.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

http://www.tsn.ca/examining-the-true-value-of-toronto-s-first-overall-pick-1.491169

You know, because why not.

I really wanted to tell him to stick adjGP where the sun doesn't shine by about half-way through that.

There is not one of those proposals that would be even considered in the real world, he needs to step away from the calculator and go watch a game, damn.

This is the real world and he probably watches more games than any of us.

regardless of how many games he's seen I think this is an insane oversimplification of what draft picks are worth..like the leafs have a lot of picks...i'm sure we can just cobble enough 2nd 3rd and 4th rounders to pry laine off winnipeg right?

Well I never said it was legit, just that it's not a result of not watching the games.

I know that and it was an oversimplification on my part, I think you know I'm a supporter of hockey analytics and statistical analysis in general, but this rating system is so rudimentary that it's almost insulting when he starts coming up with trade proposals and presenting them as even remotely plausible.

 

[Kin]

Yeah, I think in this case it was less "you should go watch a game" to mean that he hadn't before so much as this is so divorced from even rudimentary analysis of how games are actually won and lost that a refresher might be needed.

 

[bustaheims]

Yeah, I think in this case it was less "you should go watch a game" to mean that he hadn't before so much as this is so divorced from even rudimentary analysis of how games are actually won and lost that a refresher might be needed.

He's trying way too hard to create an NHL equivalence to the NHFL draft pick value chart that keeps floating around - which would be great, if he actually did more than a barely even surface level exploration. Perhaps something based around Point Share or the like would have been worthwhile.

 

[Kin]

Yeah, I think in this case it was less "you should go watch a game" to mean that he hadn't before so much as this is so divorced from even rudimentary analysis of how games are actually won and lost that a refresher might be needed.

He's trying way too hard to create an NHL equivalence to the NHFL draft pick value chart that keeps floating around - which would be great, if he actually did more than a barely even surface level exploration. Perhaps something based around Point Share or the like would have been worthwhile.

Yeah, until you have a persuasive all encompassing WAR or PER like stat for hockey anything like this is going to be hard to sell. I appreciate the concept but the idea that you could swap the #2 for a #1 by virtue of throwing in a 4th round pick does a disservice to the concept of quantitative analysis.

 

[herman]

[youtube]MllnVgK1D7s[/youtube]

Did we talk about this garbage yet?

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

[youtube]MllnVgK1D7s[/youtube]

Did we talk about this garbage yet?

Yeah, real captain material.  What a jerk.  I'd be happy to see him suspended a game for that.

 

[Kin]

Perry's always been that guy though.