Tank Nation: Matthews Edition
- Thread starter LuncheonMeat
- Start date
bustaheims
Active member
cabber24 said:
I don't think it's even that high.
Highlander
Active member
As Oddball said in Kellys Hero's: Why don't you knock it off with them negative waves?
L K
Active member
cabber24 said:
If the draft lottery was won by the next worst team the draft probability would be
1st Overall - 20% (29th place team wins lottery)
2nd Overall - 23.1% (28th place team wins lottery)
3rd Overall - 26.7%
In comparison the 2014 draft lottery gave the 30th ranked team a 25% chance at the 1st overall pick. My math is probably wrong but that would put the Leafs probability of drafting outside the top 3 at 80%*76.1%*72.3 = 44%
If the Leafs ran into a disaster draft and the 14th and 13th ranked teams won the first two lotteries the Leafs would face:
1st draft - 20%
2nd draft - 20.1%
3rd draft - 20.3%
Frank E said:
If the worst-case scenario happens and the Leafs end up picking 4th or 5th I could see them trying to trade down. They actually made an offer to Columbus last year to move from 4th to 8th (it was 4th for 8th and three 2nd rounders). I don't know if there will be a situation like that again where a team is picking 7-10 and has multiple 2nd rounders to burn, but I'm sure the Leafs would look into it.
bustaheims
Active member
CarltonTheBear said:
The Canucks seem like the most likely possibility there.
bustaheims
Active member
Frank E said:
If the Pens pick stays roughly where it is right now, there's a couple pretty interesting D prospects that should be available there to pick without needing to trade up.
Also, while I'm obviously no scout and haven't really watched these guys, I feel like Chychrun is getting a little underrated in this draft while the opposite is happening to Juolevi. Rankings seem to largely be using Juolevi's performance the WJC and the Top Prospects game when saying why his stock is rising. One was a tournament that Chychrun didn't participate in (when he probably should have) and the other is one game. I'm always surprised how much people talk about the Top Prospects game.
And maybe LK can chime in here a bit, but Juolevi's scoring doesn't seem to be very impressive when you consider the insane firepower he's playing behind in London. Chychrun's 4th among defencemen in scoring in the OHL, while Juolevi is 20th. You'd think Juolevi would be racking up some more assists passing to Marner/Dvorak/Tkachuk.
And maybe LK can chime in here a bit, but Juolevi's scoring doesn't seem to be very impressive when you consider the insane firepower he's playing behind in London. Chychrun's 4th among defencemen in scoring in the OHL, while Juolevi is 20th. You'd think Juolevi would be racking up some more assists passing to Marner/Dvorak/Tkachuk.
GhostofPotvin29
New member
CarltonTheBear said:
Is he playing with them? I was thinking it could be a similar situation to one I'm more familiar with, Zach Senyshyn with the Soo last season - he was playing well down in the lineup because the team was stacked offensively with older players and were going for it so he didn't get the same ice time or opportunities as he might have elsewhere, so his stats were a little underwhelming.
bustaheims said:
They only have the one pick in the 2nd round though, that wouldn't be nearly enough.
Maybe Carolina? They have their own 1st rounder, LA's 1st rounder (will be late), two 2nds, and three 3rds. I'm sure Dubas could figure something out with all of that. They're currently drafting 11th though, so they'd probably need to drop a little.
L K
Active member
Potvin29 said:
20 of his 34 points have come on the PP and yes, he often plays with at least one of Marner/Dvorak on the ice. He's not always on the top PP unit though because Marner plays the point. He's not far off from a Olli Maatta clone. I certainly would take Chychrun over him. Honestly, if I had to choose, I might even argue that trading down and drafting Victor Mete might be better if we are talking about the Pittsburgh pick. I don't think Juolevi is going to pan out as the best/second best defenseman out of the draft.
Who I really want the Leafs to get their hands on is Evan Bouchard (2018 draft). A big right handed defenseman with a hard shot. I think he's going to have a massive year next season.