Tank Nation UNITE!!!

[herman]

So I was having this discussion with a colleague at work about first round draft duds.  The discussion went down the train of thought that with all of the advanced scouting and metrics available to teams nowadays that the chances that a team totally misses the boat on a 1st overall selection are smaller than they were say 25 - 35 years ago.  This isn't to say that a Crosby will be drafted in every draft, but rather misses like Patrick Stefan and Pat Falloon ( not a first but picked 2nd before Neidermeyer at 3rd) will become less and less frequent.  What say the minds of tmlfans.ca?

I am with Potvin29's article he showed where just drafting the highest scoring players available will basically be the best choice.  Once in a while it flops and once in a while a player off the chart turns out great but those are so infrequent that a team should not even consider it.

Where is this posted (or is there a link)? Don't remember seeing it. This is something I was wondering about the other day.

http://thehockeywriters.com/the-nhl-has-a-scouting-problem/

Using Pearson?s r correlation we found that the NHL?s Central Scouting Staff rankings compared to those players? NHL games played only had a correlation of -0.19 (or ?No or negligible relationship?).  When using very simple metrics such as a prospect?s draft-year points/game, the correlation with NHL games played is much higher, at 0.41 (or ?Strong positive relationship?).

This is absolutely mind blowing

I found it interesting where the Leafs have sometimes simply drafted for the size of a player thinking that size can't be taught.

Hopefully those days are over.

Thanks, Britishbulldog/Potvin29. I didn't catch it the first time it came up. It seems to me that speed and PPG are some pretty easy surface metrics to rely on for draft success.

 

[Britishbulldog]

Arizona didn't register a shot in the 2nd period and are being outshot 28-6 in the 3rd of their game.  Taking this tank seriously.

That is BAAAADDDD!  Edmonton was bad against Toronto as well.  The Leafs looked like the Harlem Globetrotters.  I don't find Buffalo and Carolina look as bad as those 2 teams.

 

[LittleHockeyFan]

I think the bears are on board for Tank Nation too now:

 

[bustaheims]

mirtle: Leafs fall to 4-21-2 in their last 27 games. Their slump is now nearly half their season.

It's almost exactly 1/3 of the season. This is their most spectacular collapse yet.

 

[L K]

mirtle: Leafs fall to 4-21-2 in their last 27 games. Their slump is now nearly half their season.

It's almost exactly 1/3 of the season. This is their most spectacular collapse yet.

The best part for me is that they went on a 10-1-1 stretch after getting blown out by Nashville.  Outside of that stretch they are: 13-29-4...that's Buffalo level bad, 54 point pace.

 

[moon111]

The only thing I would say is they in theory could have their line of the future with Christian Dvorak - Mitch Marner - Max Domi if they really wanted to try and All-Knights line.  They are playing together in the OHL right now. 

Wow I actually completely forgot about the Domi-Marner connection (and didn't realize they had their 3rd linemate too). That could definitely work in our favour then.

I was sort of leaning on the Connor Brown/Connor McDavid connection.

 

[herman]

mirtle: Leafs fall to 4-21-2 in their last 27 games. Their slump is now nearly half their season.

It's almost exactly 1/3 of the season. This is their most spectacular collapse yet.

At what point is a slump no longer a slump, but merely indicative of our natural baseline level of play?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Columbus and New Jersey both won last night. Starting to build a decent little cushion there for 5th. And just 4 points out of 4th right now, but Carolina has 2 games in hand. Friday's game against them is going to be big. I BELEAF!

 

[CarltonTheBear]

mirtle: Leafs fall to 4-21-2 in their last 27 games. Their slump is now nearly half their season.

It's almost exactly 1/3 of the season. This is their most spectacular collapse yet.

The best part for me is that they went on a 10-1-1 stretch after getting blown out by Nashville.  Outside of that stretch they are: 13-29-4...that's Buffalo level bad, 54 point pace.

Stupid hot streaks. Although Buffalo also had a similar stretch like that too this season where they picked up 10 wins in 12 games or something like that.

 

[Boston Leaf]

Columbus and New Jersey both won last night. Starting to build a decent little cushion there for 5th. And just 4 points out of 4th right now, but Carolina has 2 games in hand. Friday's game against them is going to be big. I BELEAF!

Huge game to lose Friday..huge

 

[Jolly good show chaps]

Columbus and New Jersey both won last night. Starting to build a decent little cushion there for 5th. And just 4 points out of 4th right now, but Carolina has 2 games in hand. Friday's game against them is going to be big. I BELEAF!

We've got to lose - otherwise I can't see us finishing any lower than 5th.  Carolina were my big hope to overtake the Leafs since the Coyotes are just awful.

 

[sickbeast]

Friday night is a big game for the tank! Go hurricanes go! LOL

 

[Bill_Berg]

We're only 6 points back of the Oilers after they beat Boston.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

We're only 6 points back of the Oilers after they beat Boston.

7, to be exact.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

We're only 6 points back of the Oilers after they beat Boston.

7, to be exact.

And it'll probably have to be 8 as the Leafs will likely hold the tie-breaker over Edmonton.

 

[Boston Leaf]

Lets gut this team now and play Marlies... top 3 pick would be so sweet... If we had 3rd pick and ya know it goes MacDavid/Eichel do Leafs go Hannifan or Strome? Not what fans want but what do you think they do?

 

[Redleaf]

I can't overstate how badly they need to lose the next game. They could 2 pts out of 4th or 6 if they win..

 

[Kin]

I can't overstate how badly they need to lose the next game. They could 2 pts out of 4th or 6 if they win..

Actually I think you are overstating it. Realistically the Leafs are going to pick between 4-8 and the rebuild really isn't going to hinge on where they pick from that range. It's a good draft and there will be good players available regardless of where they pick. A proper rebuild is going to be a long haul regardless of who their draft pick is this year.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

@reporterchris 

Kyle Dubas, speaking at Conn Smythe dinner, on #leafs: "We have to do things the right way. That may mean starting from the beginning."

Close as we've come to someone in management actually quoted on that.

 

[Rebel_1812]

I can't overstate how badly they need to lose the next game. They could 2 pts out of 4th or 6 if they win..

Actually I think you are overstating it. Realistically the Leafs are going to pick between 4-8 and the rebuild really isn't going to hinge on where they pick from that range. It's a good draft and there will be good players available regardless of where they pick. A proper rebuild is going to be a long haul regardless of who their draft pick is this year.

That is a pessimistic attitude towards losing ;-)