Tank Nation UNITE!!!

[L K]

It's a very minor point, but I think Carolina won all three games vs the Leafs, which I think is the next tiebreaker after ROW. Unlikely to matter, but nice to know.

That is correct.  Tiebreakers are as follows
1. ROW (Leafs 25 > Carolina 24)
2. H2H (Carolina 3-0-0 > Leafs 0-3-0)

So if Carolina wins 1 more game and the Leafs win both their remaining games in the shootout, Carolina finishes ahead of Toronto.  They would be tied at 71 points, would be tied on the 1st tiebreaker but Carolina wins by virtue of the head-to-head matchup.

So ways that Carolina finishes ahead of the Leafs:
Carolina goes 4-0-0, 3-1-0, 3-0-1, 2-2-0, 2-1-1, 2-0-2, 1-0-3, 1-2-1, 1-1-2, 0-0-4, 0-1-3
Leafs go 0-2-0, 0-1-1
Combined: Leafs win both games in a shootout and Carolina wins 1 game in regulation
                Leafs lose both games in OT and Carolina gets a single point
                Leafs win one game in regulation and Carolina gets a single point

The odds are extremely unlikely that Carolina finishes behind the Leafs.  The only way a scenario likes this becomes more likely is if the Leafs had head-to-head games against Carolina that cause 4-point swings.  It just isn't going to happen otherwise.

Not to mention even if we took the Leafs best stretch of games since January 1st they are 3-1-1 with 3 of their 5 games going to OT/SO.  Over their last 10 games they are 3-6-1.
Carolina over their last 5 games are 2-2-1 and over their last 10 games are 3-4-3.

So even if we are going to bemoan every single bloody goal the Leafs score from here on out, Carolina has produced more than enough results over their last 5 games to eliminate the Leafs and have provided more points than the Leafs over their last 10 games.

I just don't get it.  I mean, sure, we can debate finishes at the end of the year and say "man, I wish the Leafs lost an extra game" but going ape in the GDTs and after each and every single good shift/goal/effort is insane.

 

[Stickytape]

If it does come down to finishing a point or two above Carolina, and finishing above them actually matters in some way, I have already circled that game against Florida where the Panthers played several minutes with half a goalie in net.

 

[Redleaf]

It's a very minor point, but I think Carolina won all three games vs the Leafs, which I think is the next tiebreaker after ROW. Unlikely to matter, but nice to know.

I just don't get it.  I mean, sure, we can debate finishes at the end of the year and say "man, I wish the Leafs lost an extra game" but going ape in the GDTs and after each and every single good shift/goal/effort is insane.

Going 'ape' after every good shift/effort/goal in game day threads is kind of the norm around here, isn't it? It's just in reverse order now that most people want the Leafs to lose instead of win games...

 

[LuncheonMeat]

If the Leafs get by the very hot Columbus team, then we may drop to 5th from bottom because the Habs will surely sit Price and a few stars like Subban etc plus Patches is hurt. I think the leafs take the habs in the last game. We MUST lose to Columbus. The players are well on the way to screwing this up. Its not hard for Carolina to lose those last few games, especially if they also try to tank.

Patches??  Ewwww, that's sort of creepy.  :-\

 

[lamajama]

As I understand it, Buffalo can clinch 30th with a loss to Carolina tonight.

Darn good incentive for Buffalo.

Git 'er done Buffalo!

 

[caver]

Yikes ! Buffalo up 2 - 0 in the first...and the Canes play Detroit twice and Philly once after this....

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

3-0 Sabres now....

 

[LuncheonMeat]

And another makes 4.

 

[Redleaf]

I'm going to make a bold prediction, and say the Leafs WILL overtake Carolina in the standings and end up picking 5th or 6th at the draft, regardless of how many doubters there are that say it won't happen.

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

I took people's reaction as more of it didn't really matter, not that it wouldn't happen.

 

[wnc096]

I'm going to make a bold prediction, and say the Leafs WILL overtake Carolina in the standings and end up picking 5th or 6th at the draft, regardless of how many doubters there are that say it won't happen.

I wouldn't exactly classify that as being "bold"

 

[Redleaf]

I took people's reaction as more of it didn't really matter, not that it wouldn't happen.

Not sure how it would really matter, but to each their own I suppose. If we end up drafting Crouse instead of Marner or Strome I'm sure it will matter to a lot of fans. 

 

[TML fan]

There are other players besides Crouse that the Leafs could take at 6.

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

I took people's reaction as more of it didn't really matter, not that it wouldn't happen.

Not sure how it would really matter, but to each their own I suppose. If we end up drafting Crouse instead of Marner or Strome I'm sure it will matter to a lot of fans.

I guess, but there's nothing that says they have to take Crouse. They could take Provorov or Barzal or Rantanen. There's no guarantees in drafts and while I'd prefer one of Marner/Hanifin/Strome they'll still likely get a very good player @ 6.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Right now there's an 88% chance they finish 4th.

 

[freer]

Right now there's an 88% chance they finish 4th.

I hope the odds stay like that.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Right now there's an 88% chance they finish 4th.

I hope the odds stay like that.

I don't because that would mean the season would never end. 100% or 0% for me thank-you-very-much.

 

[Redleaf]

Right now there's an 88% chance they finish 4th.

That seems a little high to me. Carolina has some pretty tough matchups and I think the Leafs could win their last two games. I still think the Leafs will overtake Carolina, probably on the last night of the season.

 

[Al14]

Right now there's an 88% chance they finish 4th.

That seems a little high to me. Carolina has some pretty tough matchups and I think the Leafs could win their last two games. I still think the Leafs will overtake Carolina, probably on the last night of the season.

Oh, poop to that!  It would be typical of our Leafs to screw us out of a draft position!  They can't do anything right!

 

[LuncheonMeat]

Right now there's an 88% chance they finish 4th.

That seems a little high to me. Carolina has some pretty tough matchups and I think the Leafs could win their last two games. I still think the Leafs will overtake Carolina, probably on the last night of the season.

2-1 'Canes going into the third!