The Brian Burke Thread

[Redleaf]

CW: Is this not to some extent rolling over your prospect roster? We let guys like Caputi and Aulie go because they didn't seem to be working in our organization for guys like Carter Ashton and Nicolas Deschamps while trying to find lost wallets at every turn.

Captui & Aulie for Deschamps & Ashton is young prospect for young prospect. To me, that's closer to treading water - salvaging prospect value.

In my mind, rolling over the roster tends to move out older guys for younger players/assets building up a bigger snowball of good young talent to move forward with. In general theory that will compress more NHL  talent on a roster into a quality young core with better price performance and more shots (seasons) to win it all as a group.

So the Ashton/Deschamps acquisitions don't perfectly fit that mold in my opinion (although both look like reasonable deals). Beauchemin for Gardiner or Kaberle for Colbourne are examples of rolling over older players for younger quality assets. Getting a 1st for MacArthur and signing an equivalent UFA in the summer is arguably also a form of rolling over a player to improve the youth assets because come July 1, your NHL roster is about the same with a UFA replacing MacArthur and you have an additional 1st round pick in your system.

If a GM rolls over a roster a couple of/few times like that, he ought to have a pretty strong system with some good quality youth to move forward with. To me, it's more productive towards winning a Cup than treading water to see if the current, marginal roster can make the playoffs with little chance of winning a Cup because the roster still has so many holes.

If a team gets the rolling over too spread out, then that also doesn't achieve the same effect. Once a team starts to contend, it's much tougher to roll over the roster because they need the depth and vets to contend.

To a degree, Burke's failure at "re-tooling" that resulting in some "rebuilding" last season and now to a tread water mode this deadline, is spreading the rolling over out (or ending it if they begin to contend next year).

At that point, the subsequent drafts continue to feed the NHL roster replacing older players but a team tends to burn up excess assets up trying to get that roster over the top. So the bigger the snowball of youth you've built up, the longer you can go with your core once that is built, trying to win it all.

If you try to contend too soon, more often than not, you run out of young assets and have to blow the thing up sooner.

I think Burke's hi bred style allows for a fairly quick transition in either direction though. If he thinks he can contend now or soon, he packages some of the picks and/or prospects he's accumulated for 'youngish' players (or vets if he thinks he can go far).

If he thinks the rebuild isn't quite ready to fly he ships off some of his 'mature' guys (usually still in their 20's) for mature prospects. The key to his blueprint is the age group of the players he's moving in and out.

It can work in the sense that he can always get good value in trade for youthful players, whether he's selling or buying. Even if some of his moves seem lateral he eventually finds the 'right' player through trial and error.

I realize the price performance for rookies isn't really ideal under this system, and its not without flaws, but nonetheless it has its merits.

 

[bustaheims]

Point taken, but you could say the same thing about planning for that elite 1st line center to become available, that ultimately you're setting yourself up for failure.

Sure. You can say the same thing about planning for anything that specific. The key to successfully rebuilding is using a diverse avenue of tactics and taking advantage of the right opportunities when they present themselves. And, I remain unconvinced that selling off assets for futures at this particular deadline was the right opportunity - especially in light of the fact that the team will have other opportunities to move the assets in question (since it appears as though Grabovski is on the verge of signing an extension). Sure, some may lose value, but others may gain value. Besides that, this team needs many of those assets to compete next season, as this summer's free agent market is very shallow (and, will almost certainly be even more shallow once July 1st rolls around) and there will be a lot of teams competing for the small number of quality offensive players that may be available.

 

[Jalili]

I think MLSE would have listened to him when they hired him and accepted a more conservative direction. Burke going the re-tooling direction hurt his chances to be successful in Toronto in my opinion. This was not a situation like Anaheim where he had some elite guys already drafted/in the system.

This is something I thought about a long time ago, and the best answer I could come up with was a quote straight from Burke's mouth.

"Stripping down to the chassis and rebuilding it is certainly not what ownership has asked me to do. We're not rebuilding here, we're retooling."

 

[cw]

Just to add a bit to that (and I know he has added some guys that are kind of like prospects who have since played in the NHL), but his drafting hasn't really amounted to much at the NHL level at this point.

Kadri can't crack a mediocre lineup and no-one else is on the verge of doing so.  The young guys on the roster:
Gunnarsson; Kulemin; Reimer are from the Ferguson Jr. drafts.  And the guy we hear the most talk about being the next guy to come up is Holzer, who is again, a Ferguson draft pick. 

We are in year 4 of the Burke era, which means he's had nearly 3 full seasons of his drafts and he can't get a guy into his lineup from that.  Not that it means any of those guys are busts or not going to amount to something in the NHL, but this hasn't exactly been the best roster the last few years and to not have guys who are beating down the door to get on the roster is not all that encouraging.

I can't beat him up too much for that because there are not a lot of guys drafted in '09 or since who have played a lot of games in the NHL.

The top 12 prospects in their system now according to HF (assuming Ashton is in the top 12) are Burke acquisitions. So we'll see some of them soon enough.

 

[cw]

I think MLSE would have listened to him when they hired him and accepted a more conservative direction. Burke going the re-tooling direction hurt his chances to be successful in Toronto in my opinion. This was not a situation like Anaheim where he had some elite guys already drafted/in the system.

This is something I thought about a long time ago, and the best answer I could come up with was a quote straight from Burke's mouth.

"Stripping down to the chassis and rebuilding it is certainly not what ownership has asked me to do. We're not rebuilding here, we're retooling."

I was critical of JFJ going along with ownership in the same way. It's up to the manager to get ownership to go in a direction that will be successful. If he can't do that, then he deserves what will inevitably come his way. Burke made his bed going along with that when he was in a position to persuade them of alternatives given their 40 year history of failing trying to take shortcuts.

He could have said "if you really want me, you have to do it right" and I think that would have bought him a few years of patience and some time to do it "right".

He didn't and he'll probably pay for it. It tough enough to win it all when one "does it right" because there are never any guarantees.

 

[Bender]

Just to add a bit to that (and I know he has added some guys that are kind of like prospects who have since played in the NHL), but his drafting hasn't really amounted to much at the NHL level at this point.

Kadri can't crack a mediocre lineup and no-one else is on the verge of doing so.  The young guys on the roster:
Gunnarsson; Kulemin; Reimer are from the Ferguson Jr. drafts.  And the guy we hear the most talk about being the next guy to come up is Holzer, who is again, a Ferguson draft pick. 

We are in year 4 of the Burke era, which means he's had nearly 3 full seasons of his drafts and he can't get a guy into his lineup from that.  Not that it means any of those guys are busts or not going to amount to something in the NHL, but this hasn't exactly been the best roster the last few years and to not have guys who are beating down the door to get on the roster is not all that encouraging.

I can't beat him up too much for that because there are not a lot of guys drafted in '09 or since who have played a lot of games in the NHL.

The top 12 prospects in their system now according to HF (assuming Ashton is in the top 12) are Burke acquisitions. So we'll see some of them soon enough.

Just looking at the list, pretty much every prospect of note outside of Matt Frattin and Korbinian Holzer is a Burke pick.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Just to add a bit to that (and I know he has added some guys that are kind of like prospects who have since played in the NHL), but his drafting hasn't really amounted to much at the NHL level at this point.

Kadri can't crack a mediocre lineup and no-one else is on the verge of doing so.  The young guys on the roster:
Gunnarsson; Kulemin; Reimer are from the Ferguson Jr. drafts.  And the guy we hear the most talk about being the next guy to come up is Holzer, who is again, a Ferguson draft pick. 

We are in year 4 of the Burke era, which means he's had nearly 3 full seasons of his drafts and he can't get a guy into his lineup from that.  Not that it means any of those guys are busts or not going to amount to something in the NHL, but this hasn't exactly been the best roster the last few years and to not have guys who are beating down the door to get on the roster is not all that encouraging.

I can't beat him up too much for that because there are not a lot of guys drafted in '09 or since who have played a lot of games in the NHL.

The top 12 prospects in their system now according to HF (assuming Ashton is in the top 12) are Burke acquisitions. So we'll see some of them soon enough.

Yeah, further to this he's always been one to encourage extra development time for prospects in the minors, so over the next year or two we will start to see some more break through.

That's partly why I was surprised he didn't move some more bodies out yesterday, just to create space, I imagine we will see quite a bit of that pre-draft.

 

[Jalili]

Point taken, but you could say the same thing about planning for that elite 1st line center to become available, that ultimately you're setting yourself up for failure.

Sure. You can say the same thing about planning for anything that specific. The key to successfully rebuilding is using a diverse avenue of tactics and taking advantage of the right opportunities when they present themselves. And, I remain unconvinced that selling off assets for futures at this particular deadline was the right opportunity - especially in light of the fact that the team will have other opportunities to move the assets in question (since it appears as though Grabovski is on the verge of signing an extension). Sure, some may lose value, but others may gain value. Besides that, this team needs many of those assets to compete next season, as this summer's free agent market is very shallow (and, will almost certainly be even more shallow once July 1st rolls around) and there will be a lot of teams competing for the small number of quality offensive players that may be available.

The reason I used that example is because the elite 1st line center seems to be the player that most of this fanbase has identified as being the team's greatest need in order to compete for the Cup.

But I don't see a problem with selling off assets like MacArthur for futures because I see him as a non-core player and someone who is going to be replaced internally at some point anyway, and I still would like to see them make a strong push to move up in the draft if their position in the standings remains the same. Even if it's only a handful of spots or less.

 

[bustaheims]

That's partly why I was surprised he didn't move some more bodies out yesterday, just to create space, I imagine we will see quite a bit of that pre-draft.

If it happens, it's more likely to happen around training camp, when some of the prospects force his hand and show him they deserve to be on the NHL roster through merit rather than through hype. That's been his mantra all along when it comes to the prospects - show you're good enough and I'll make room, otherwise, you're going to have to wait. He did it for Aulie last season, Gardiner to start this season. He created a spot for Frattin last week. He's not going to hand them spots, but, when he believes they're ready to be full-time NHLers, he'll find a way to make it work.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

That's partly why I was surprised he didn't move some more bodies out yesterday, just to create space, I imagine we will see quite a bit of that pre-draft.

If it happens, it's more likely to happen around training camp, when some of the prospects force his hand and show him they deserve to be on the NHL roster through merit rather than through hype. That's been his mantra all along when it comes to the prospects - show you're good enough and I'll make room, otherwise, you're going to have to wait. He did it for Aulie last season, Gardiner to start this season. He created a spot for Frattin last week. He's not going to hand them spots, but, when he believes they're ready to be full-time NHLers, he'll find a way to make it work.

I think there are a few that might have given him that impression already, he's spoken of guys being victims of a numbers game before, but otherwise you're probably right.

 

[bustaheims]

But I don't see a problem with selling off assets like MacArthur for futures because I see him as a non-core player and someone who is going to be replaced internally at some point anyway, and I still would like to see them make a strong push to move up in the draft if their position in the standings remains the same. Even if it's only a handful of spots or less.

Sure, but there's no reason the team can't potentially use MacArthur (or anyone else) to move up at the draft in place of a draft pick. It's not likely to get them into the top 5, but, they weren't likely to be able to do that regardless.

 

[cw]

I think Burke's hi bred style allows for a fairly quick transition in either direction though. If he thinks he can contend now or soon, he packages some of the picks and/or prospects he's accumulated for 'youngish' players (or vets if he thinks he can go far).

If he thinks the rebuild isn't quite ready to fly he ships off some of his 'mature' guys (usually still in their 20's) for mature prospects. The key to his blueprint is the age group of the players he's moving in and out.

It can work in the sense that he can always get good value in trade for youthful players, whether he's selling or buying. Even if some of his moves seem lateral he eventually finds the 'right' player through trial and error.

I realize the price performance for rookies isn't really ideal under this system, and its not without flaws, but nonetheless it has its merits.

He could get lucky. That's what we have to hope for.

But that scheme to me is sucking and blowing or has the consistent direction of a weather vane.

My problem with the Kessel deal remains: great player but he'll be a UFA after a couple of more seasons and the good bang for the buck is largely gone while they're still trying to assemble a Cup contender.

The timing of what they do to construct a Cup contender should have something to do with it. Not "I'll do what I feel like when I feel like it and make it up as I go along".

Burke talks about having a plan but of all the GMs I've followed, his "plan" is the least discernible because it's had to change as his attempts at "re-tooling", "build from the net out", "top 6/bottom 6", etc changed or failed.

I still like the guy and appreciate him as Leafs GM but his record of achievement of his stated plans isn't very hot. It's only as good as he can change it to try to keep up with his misses.

 

[Erndog]

I just don't know how this Leaf team is going to improve itself.

-  There are exactly 2 impact UFA's this summer.  Parise and Suter.  We aren't getting either one.  Their are a handful of decent-to-good 3rd line types like David Jones, Paul Gaustad, Jordin Tootoo, etc.  These guys, while might be decent addtiions, won't change the fortunes of this Leaf club.  Not at all.  (I'd wager their additions turn out like Colby Armstrong anyways... almost meaningless, just eating cap space).

-  We have few, if any, prospects who might make any sort of impactful contribution next year.  Realistically, Kadri, Frattin, etc, are AT BEST 40 point forwards next year.  Whoopdyyy, doo?

-  No team is in cap hell that MUST jettison some players like we've seen in recent years (i.e. like we did with Chicagio and Versteeg)


I just don't see how this team can make any sort of significant improvement.  For instance, it's VERY likely that, ONCE AGAIN, we go into the season with Bozak as the defacto #1 center.

I guess we can hope they sign someone like Josh Harding to compete with Reimer for the #1 job and we get lucky and Josh takes the ball and runs with it.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

Burke talks about having a plan but of all the GMs I've followed, his "plan" is the least discernible because it's had to change as his attempts at "re-tooling", "build from the net out", "top 6/bottom 6", etc changed or failed.

I agree he has had to change some, but one consistent thing he's done, is that he has always built up the prospect pool and traded and signed his way to a young team. I think for the most part, a big percentage of his acquisitions have been very young players and players that fit into the 24-28 age group. He hasn't much changed that stance from the beginning IMO.

 

[rdowdall]

I just don't know how this Leaf team is going to improve itself.

-  There are exactly 2 impact UFA's this summer.  Parise and Suter.  We aren't getting either one.  Their are a handful of decent-to-good 3rd line types like David Jones, Paul Gaustad, Jordin Tootoo, etc.  These guys, while might be decent addtiions, won't change the fortunes of this Leaf club.  Not at all.  (I'd wager their additions turn out like Colby Armstrong anyways... almost meaningless, just eating cap space).

-  We have few, if any, prospects who might make any sort of impactful contribution next year.  Realistically, Kadri, Frattin, etc, are AT BEST 40 point forwards next year.  Whoopdyyy, doo?

-  No team is in cap hell that MUST jettison some players like we've seen in recent years (i.e. like we did with Chicagio and Versteeg)


I just don't see how this team can make any sort of significant improvement.  For instance, it's VERY likely that, ONCE AGAIN, we go into the season with Bozak as the defacto #1 center.

I guess we can hope they sign someone like Josh Harding to compete with Reimer for the #1 job and we get lucky and Josh takes the ball and runs with it.

That's the problem I have with their current situation.  They have no real way to improve.  They are stuck with what they got, and what they have is a bunch of complimentary pieces with no core.

 

[cw]

Burke talks about having a plan but of all the GMs I've followed, his "plan" is the least discernible because it's had to change as his attempts at "re-tooling", "build from the net out", "top 6/bottom 6", etc changed or failed.

I agree he has had to change some, but one consistent thing he's done, is that he has always built up the prospect pool and traded and signed his way to a young team. I think for the most part, a big percentage of his acquisitions have been very young players and players that fit into the 24-28 age group. He hasn't much changed that stance from the beginning IMO.

And he's saved himself maybe more than he deserved with some remarkable deals (like Gardiner or Colbourne). So it hasn't all been bad.

And credit to him for at least recognizing and admitting something in his plan wasn't working and promptly doing something about it. Good managers do just that as rarely does everything go according to plan.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

And he's saved himself maybe more than he deserved with some remarkable deals (like Gardiner or Colbourne). So it hasn't all been bad.

And credit to him for at least recognizing and admitting something in his plan wasn't working and promptly doing something about it. Good managers do just that as rarely does everything go according to plan.

Maybe this is what made him confident that he could have pulled off what ownership was asking him to do, he does have a rather large ego to massage.

I'm still of the belief that no other GM available at the time of his hire, could have pulled the Leafs to this point, from the mess that was JFJ. Think back to what we had here, other than JFJ's left over good picks. I don't know where to find old teams, but it wasn't a good roster or system.

 

[Redleaf]

I think Burke's hi bred style allows for a fairly quick transition in either direction though. If he thinks he can contend now or soon, he packages some of the picks and/or prospects he's accumulated for 'youngish' players (or vets if he thinks he can go far).

If he thinks the rebuild isn't quite ready to fly he ships off some of his 'mature' guys (usually still in their 20's) for mature prospects. The key to his blueprint is the age group of the players he's moving in and out.

It can work in the sense that he can always get good value in trade for youthful players, whether he's selling or buying. Even if some of his moves seem lateral he eventually finds the 'right' player through trial and error.

I realize the price performance for rookies isn't really ideal under this system, and its not without flaws, but nonetheless it has its merits.

He could get lucky. That's what we have to hope for.

But that scheme to me is sucking and blowing or has the consistent direction of a weather vane.

My problem with the Kessel deal remains: great player but he'll be a UFA after a couple of more seasons and the good bang for the buck is largely gone while they're still trying to assemble a Cup contender.

The timing of what they do to construct a Cup contender should have something to do with it. Not "I'll do what I feel like when I feel like it and make it up as I go along".

Burke talks about having a plan but of all the GMs I've followed, his "plan" is the least discernible because it's had to change as his attempts at "re-tooling", "build from the net out", "top 6/bottom 6", etc changed or failed.

I still like the guy and appreciate him as Leafs GM but his record of achievement of his stated plans isn't very hot. It's only as good as he can change it to try to keep up with his misses.

I'm not sure if direction is a constant though. Building a team is a constant work in progress. The system he's set up is ideal if you want to make changes in either direction. Thats my point.

your quote...

"And credit to him for at least recognizing and admitting something in his plan wasn't working and promptly doing something about it. Good managers do just that as rarely does everything go according to plan."

I agree and to my point of his blueprint, perhaps he's laid it out like this for this very purpose?

 

[cw]

And he's saved himself maybe more than he deserved with some remarkable deals (like Gardiner or Colbourne). So it hasn't all been bad.

And credit to him for at least recognizing and admitting something in his plan wasn't working and promptly doing something about it. Good managers do just that as rarely does everything go according to plan.

Maybe this is what made him confident that he could have pulled off what ownership was asking him to do, he does have a rather large ego to massage.

I'm still of the belief that no other GM available at the time of his hire, could have pulled the Leafs to this point, from the mess that was JFJ. Think back to what we had here, other than JFJ's left over good picks. I don't know where to find old teams, but it wasn't a good roster or system.

The brain trust he's collected with Fletcher, Nonis, Poulin, Loiselle & Dudley is quite remarkable. There isn't a dud in that bunch in my opinion. How could you pull a stupid move with that group in the room? So that's something else he deserves credit for.

Each of those guys have probably forgotten more hockey than I ever knew so that keeps me pinching myself that everything will eventually work out.

Having said that, I still think they'd be considerably further ahead towards contending for a Cup if they'd gone for a rebuild from the outset.

 

[Jalili]

And he's saved himself maybe more than he deserved with some remarkable deals (like Gardiner or Colbourne). So it hasn't all been bad.

And credit to him for at least recognizing and admitting something in his plan wasn't working and promptly doing something about it. Good managers do just that as rarely does everything go according to plan.

Maybe this is what made him confident that he could have pulled off what ownership was asking him to do, he does have a rather large ego to massage.

I'm still of the belief that no other GM available at the time of his hire, could have pulled the Leafs to this point, from the mess that was JFJ. Think back to what we had here, other than JFJ's left over good picks. I don't know where to find old teams, but it wasn't a good roster or system.

The brain trust he's collected with Fletcher, Nonis, Poulin, Loiselle & Dudley is quite remarkable. There isn't a dud in that bunch in my opinion. How could you pull a stupid move with that group in the room? So that's something else he deserves credit for.

Each of those guys have probably forgotten more hockey than I ever knew so that keeps me pinching myself that everything will eventually work out.

Having said that, I still think they'd be considerably further ahead towards contending for a Cup if they'd gone for a rebuild from the outset.

Just the thought of what the picks they gave up might have yielded, especially subtracting Kessel's contribution to the team during those years, is something that really makes you facepalm.