Your summer 2012 strategy?

[Erndog]

I still have a hard time digesting this.  I don't know where they are going to go from here.  I keep harping on this, but seriously, take a look forward.

-  Very little impact UFAs.... Only Parise and Suter and we aren't getting either.
-  Very little impact prospects on the horizon.  If Kadri/Frattin/anyone score 40 points next year it's a success.
-  Very little cap space.
-  Too much dead wood (L.A.C.K)


Next year will be the same old.  It's sad, but it's true.  They just have wayyyyyy to many holes to fill and not enough leverage to do it in 1 summer.  We will, assuredly, be looking at an 8th year of missing the playoffs.  The GOOD news is the year after we should have more cap space, a stronger UFA crop and better prospects on the horizon. 

Another thing is we are still, after all these years, sadly plagued by the same thing.  No goalie, no #1 center, you could argue no #1 dman, no high end power forward.... sad really.  We haven't been able to even plug ONE hole in Burkes 4 years.

 

[Kin]

It'll be interesting to see the extent to which Burke blows this club up in the summer. I wouldn't guess one way or the other but it'll say something about Burke's views on his job security.

 

[iwas11in67]

Burke didn't do much at the trade deadline, so at that time he still believed in this team. It will be interesting to see what he does in the summer.

 

[Strangelove]

Burke didn't do much at the trade deadline, so at that time he still believed in this team. It will be interesting to see what he does in the summer.

Re-sign everyone to 4 year extensions.  They can't play well until they have absolute job security, obviously.

 

[Erndog]

It'll be interesting to see the extent to which Burke blows this club up in the summer. I wouldn't guess one way or the other but it'll say something about Burke's views on his job security.

His typical 2 minor depth moves (Armstrong and Versteeg 2 years ago... Connolly and Lombardi/Franson last year).  He will that the trade deadline got to the team, we're already going to improve with Carlyle and that the team showed (albeit for a month) that they can hang with anyone.

2 moves.

 

[maplesyrup]

Five things that must happen in offseason:

No. 1 - Put Connolly on waivers... then send him down to minors. We did this with Finger. We're doing it again with Connolly. Burke must admit his mistake. He needs to go to save 4.5 mil in cap space.

No. 2 - Trade MacArthur for draft pick. Basically salary dump. Acquire 3 mil or so in cap space.

No. 3 - Trade for goaltender and legit centre. Burke must be creative here. He must get a legit veteran netminder who can PUSH Reimer. He must also find a centre who can play in top six. The Connolly experiment did not work. This time, Burke must hit on a centre who can play in Carlyle's system.

No. 4 - Let the kids play. Colbourne, Kadri, Ashton and Frattin all need to be with this team next season. End of story. Burke needs to understand where this team is and realize that his assessment of FA's have not been very good thus far as GM.

No. 5 - Draft centre. There are several players in top 10 who can play the position. That's a must.

Welcome to the site! I think your first post is a good one and I might only disagree with point #5. I say BPA regardless of position (if we keep the pick at all.) Drafting one of the top defencemen in the draft potentially makes another available in a trade for the centre we've been looking for via trade.   

 

[ZBBM]

I have not read this thread.... so sorry if I am being repetitive in any way at all.

The Leafs will never win with Phaneuf and Kessel. They may be fine players, but just not for this team. I would suggest a major overhaul that goes something like this:

- trade Phaneuf for whatever you possibly can
- sign UFA Ryan Suter - don't just go after him - get him
- trade Kadri and a pick for Ryan Getzlaf - Ducks cannot keep him and Perry next year so they need to make a move
- trade Kessel for a solid goalie

Of course there is no telling that all (or any) of that could happen. But in those moves you address the goal, the D, the Centre and captain that you need..... I know it won't happen, but that is what it would take to shake this team.

I love the Leafs, but I fear that the suffering is not nearly over yet.

I am under no illusions that any of this will happen but if even one did I would be pleased.

 

[L K]

Five things that must happen in offseason:

No. 1 - Put Connolly on waivers... then send him down to minors. We did this with Finger. We're doing it again with Connolly. Burke must admit his mistake. He needs to go to save 4.5 mil in cap space.

No. 2 - Trade MacArthur for draft pick. Basically salary dump. Acquire 3 mil or so in cap space.

No. 3 - Trade for goaltender and legit centre. Burke must be creative here. He must get a legit veteran netminder who can PUSH Reimer. He must also find a centre who can play in top six. The Connolly experiment did not work. This time, Burke must hit on a centre who can play in Carlyle's system.

No. 4 - Let the kids play. Colbourne, Kadri, Ashton and Frattin all need to be with this team next season. End of story. Burke needs to understand where this team is and realize that his assessment of FA's have not been very good thus far as GM.

No. 5 - Draft centre. There are several players in top 10 who can play the position. That's a must.

Welcome to the site! I think your first post is a good one and I might only disagree with point #5. I say BPA regardless of position (if we keep the pick at all.) Drafting one of the top defencemen in the draft potentially makes another available in a trade for the centre we've been looking for via trade. 

I would have figured if any year was the year to pounce on the defensive depth, it would have been this year.  Instead Burke sat around all year and did nothing with it.  I can't see anyone "buying high" on the current crop of defensemen after this collapse as individually there really isn't a guy who stands out as for-sure top tier player. 

Gunnarsson strikes me as a guy who will always be underrated to teams that he doesn't play for.  Schenn has struggled to be anything more than a bottom pairing guy.  Phaneuf makes braincramps and is just one of those contracts that doesn't attract big value.  Komisarek is worth absolutely nothing of value.  Frason isn't going to yield anything special.  Gardiner might, but he's also a massive price to give up assuming he continues to develop.  And Liles, while he took a paycut, is coming off a concussion and a brutal second half. 

I just don't see how a team looks at the Leafs defensive unit right now and would be willing to take a guy as a key piece of a deal for a #1 line player.

 

[maplesyrup]

I was thinking Gardiner.

 

[bustaheims]

Five things that must happen in offseason:

No. 1 - Put Connolly on waivers... then send him down to minors. We did this with Finger. We're doing it again with Connolly. Burke must admit his mistake. He needs to go to save 4.5 mil in cap space.

No. 2 - Trade MacArthur for draft pick. Basically salary dump. Acquire 3 mil or so in cap space.

No. 3 - Trade for goaltender and legit centre. Burke must be creative here. He must get a legit veteran netminder who can PUSH Reimer. He must also find a centre who can play in top six. The Connolly experiment did not work. This time, Burke must hit on a centre who can play in Carlyle's system.

No. 4 - Let the kids play. Colbourne, Kadri, Ashton and Frattin all need to be with this team next season. End of story. Burke needs to understand where this team is and realize that his assessment of FA's have not been very good thus far as GM.

No. 5 - Draft centre. There are several players in top 10 who can play the position. That's a must.

There are a couple things here I'm not really on board with. The first is creating cap space for this summer, because, as has been covered, there's not much on the UFA market to use it on. There are 3 reasonably interesting players who are set to become UFAs - Suter, Parise and Semin - and it wouldn't surprise me if Semin is the only one that makes it to July 1st unsigned. The rest of the market consists of depth players or guys on their last legs - not the types of players you need to create cap space to acquire. On top of that, almost all of the contracts people want to move out expire after next season, so, moving them doesn't create any future cap space. In fact, it likely decreases it, because the replacements acquired for these guys will likely be signed for multiple season - meaning the Leafs would have less cap space for what might be the best UFA market of all time in the summer of 2013. As far as needing the cap space for trades - teams understand that, in today's NHL, contracts have to be moved to make things work, though, with the uncertainty surrounding the new CBA this summer, I doubt we'll see much in terms of big trades as it is.

The biggest thing I have issue with, though, it point #4. What Burke has been trying to do (unsuccessfully, obviously) is create a situation where the team doesn't have to rush their prospects to the show, and can be patient with them. These guys should not be playing with the Leafs full-time until they're absolutely more than just ready for it. They need to force their way on to the team, make Burke create space for them and be an actual improvement on the guys they're replacing, not just a theoretical one. The Leafs need to take the Detroit approach when it comes to prospects/younger players - a patient focus on development. That's how the Leafs are going to become a team that can contend long-term. Rushing these guys to the show is more likely to stall their development than it is to improve the team. When they're truly ready, they should be on the team, but, not a second before that.

 

[Kin]

The biggest thing I have issue with, though, it point #4. What Burke has been trying to do (unsuccessfully, obviously) is create a situation where the team doesn't have to rush their prospects to the show, and can be patient with them. These guys should not be playing with the Leafs full-time until they're absolutely more than just ready for it. They need to force their way on to the team, make Burke create space for them and be an actual improvement on the guys they're replacing, not just a theoretical one. The Leafs need to take the Detroit approach when it comes to prospects/younger players - a patient focus on development. That's how the Leafs are going to become a team that can contend long-term. Rushing these guys to the show is more likely to stall their development than it is to improve the team. When they're truly ready, they should be on the team, but, not a second before that.

But if any of the players mentioned are told to sink or swim at the NHL level would anyone really accuse the Leafs of rushing them? Kadri and Colborne will be 22 and have two full pro seasons under their belt. Frattin will be 24. Ashton will be 21.

And I'm not entirely sure about the Detroit example. For starters, I'm not sure I'd look at their roster and chalk up a ton of their success to the young players on the team they've developed. More to the point though, they seem to have been fine with letting young players spend some of their development time in the NHL.

Saying a player shouldn't be in the NHL until they're ready is a fine sort of all-purpose mushy rule but I think in a lot of cases you don't know if they are until they're actually tested. 

 

[Corn Flake]

I think the Detroit model is about bringing along prospects, when they are ready or just about ready, into a winning environment where roles are clearly defined as are expectations, and the leadership and veterans are so well established that there is plenty for a young kid to lean on, but also be held accountable to.

I think the most important thing is to seriously re-jig the veteran leadership, and then bring the kids along when the environment is going to actually help them.

Talon did a brilliant job of this in Florida, as one example.

 

[Kin]

I think the Detroit model is about bringing along prospects, when they are ready or just about ready, into a winning environment where roles are clearly defined as are expectations, and the leadership and veterans are so well established that there is plenty for a young kid to lean on, but also be held accountable to.

That's probably a good summation of it but doing that is something Detroit is allowed to do by virtue of already having guys like Datsyuk and Lidstrom on the team(and Fedorov and Yzerman before them). I'm not sure the "Detroit Model" is a useful blue print for a team that's desperately in search of the players at the top of the foodchain.

 

[pnjunction]

I love the Leafs, but I fear that the suffering is not nearly over yet.

I'm afraid so as well.  Burke is in a hole and will probably just keep digging.

 

[cw]

And I'm not entirely sure about the Detroit example. For starters, I'm not sure I'd look at their roster and chalk up a ton of their success to the young players on the team they've developed. More to the point though, they seem to have been fine with letting young players spend some of their development time in the NHL.

Currently, Toronto only has 5 players who they drafted on the roster. They average 2.4 playing seasons outside of the NHL after they were drafted before becoming full time NHLers.

Detroit has 16 players they drafted on their current roster. Two are overagers that I ignored. They have 4.4 years of development seasons prior to becoming full time NHLers.

Lidstrom leads with 2 years. Datsyuk & Zetterberg had 3 years. The rest of the forwards 4 or more.

Their other dmen: Kindl, Kronwall & Ericksson got 5, 6 & 7 years development respectively.

Jimmy Howard got 6 years development.

For starters, I'm not sure I'd look at their roster and chalk up a ton of their success to the young players on the team they've developed.

I don't entirely agree. When you've got 16 drafted players on your roster and they include the starting goalie, the stud dman and the top two forwards plus several other good ones, I'd have to conclude their drafting and development has been key to their success.

As well and significant within a cap system, stretching these guys out in development for a couple of more years makes great sense for the cap. They're performing well during their 3 year entry deal. Their RFA & UFA status gets delayed to provide a better, more mature bang for your NHL cap buck.

Kronwall is a great example of this. He's 31 and finishing his RFA deal of $3 mil per year. Next year, he gets $4.75 cap hit. They got a great bang for their buck out of that guy until he was 31 because of how they developed him. When he showed up to the NHL, he was ready to go (AHL dman of the year, etc and top 3 dman ice time in his rookie season and during their run to a Cup the following year).

Luke Schenn is making $3.6 and still developing at 22. A heavy price performance advantage goes to Detroit when a team develops that way. And I continue to feel it is a key to their continued success under the cap.

 

[Corn Flake]

I think the Detroit model is about bringing along prospects, when they are ready or just about ready, into a winning environment where roles are clearly defined as are expectations, and the leadership and veterans are so well established that there is plenty for a young kid to lean on, but also be held accountable to.

That's probably a good summation of it but doing that is something Detroit is allowed to do by virtue of already having guys like Datsyuk and Lidstrom on the team(and Fedorov and Yzerman before them). I'm not sure the "Detroit Model" is a useful blue print for a team that's desperately in search of the players at the top of the foodchain.

I think they can take some queues from the model for sure but I think the key is to have veteran been-there-done-that guys surrounding the kids, whether or not they are elite stud players. 

The Leafs are in dire need of a re-injection of veteran experience, and clean out some of the ones on the team now who have failed to bring that side of their game.

 

[Kin]

For starters, I'm not sure I'd look at their roster and chalk up a ton of their success to the young players on the team they've developed.

I don't entirely agree. When you've got 16 drafted players on your roster and they include the starting goalie, the stud dman and the top two forwards plus several other good ones, I'd have to conclude their drafting and development has been key to their success.

That's fine but it's not really a contradiction of what I said there. I didn't say that their drafting/development isn't a key to their success, I said that their success has a lot more to do with their guys in the over-30 crowd then their younger guys.

I think the idea put forth that the Detroit model is self-perpetuating is a good one but it starts with great players at the top.

 

[rdowdall]

For starters, I'm not sure I'd look at their roster and chalk up a ton of their success to the young players on the team they've developed.

I don't entirely agree. When you've got 16 drafted players on your roster and they include the starting goalie, the stud dman and the top two forwards plus several other good ones, I'd have to conclude their drafting and development has been key to their success.

That's fine but it's not really a contradiction of what I said there. I didn't say that their drafting/development isn't a key to their success, I said that their success has a lot more to do with their guys in the over-30 crowd then their younger guys.

I think the idea put forth that the Detroit model is self-perpetuating is a good one but it starts with great players at the top.

I agree with Nik.  It took a while before Detriot was able to put in to place the "Detriot model".  It's not like they just drafted a bunch of guys and waited.  They were bad for a number of years, and finally got a franchise player to build around.  After they built around him, the were smart on who they drafted and how long they waited before they brought them in.  Having said that though, I can't imaging what this team would have looked like if Lidstrom, Datsyuk, and Zetterberg had not been drafted.  It begs the question if it was scouting, or drafting/development that molded those players in to the ones that are on the ice today.  If they had been drafted by any other team, would they still have succeeded?

 

[bustaheims]

It begs the question if it was scouting, or drafting/development that molded those players in to the ones that are on the ice today.  If they had been drafted by any other team, would they still have succeeded?

You can't really separate scouting from drafting and development, as neither function at their best without the other. In order to have quality players in the system without having to overpay to get them, you need the right balance of both raw talent, people who can mould that talent and the patience to let those people have the time they need to do it right.

 

[Kin]

But there's also sort of a common sense aspect to it. I don't know if you can look at Pavel Datsyuk, for instance, and say that the Red Wings were especially patient with him. The reality of it was that the Wings could legitimately say to him that if he wanted to be one of their top 2 centres that he'd have to be better than either Steve Yzerman or Sergei Fedorov. That's not an issue of patience, that's just having an appropriately ordered depth chart. If you can tell a young scorer that they have to earn a spot over Zetterberg or Tomas Holmstrom or a young checker that he'll have to beat out Maltby or Draper then you're not only setting a high bar but that player can look at a Red Wings game and see that he's being treated fairly.

That's not the case in Toronto. If Kadri or Frattin want to earn their way into the line-up they just need to be of more worth than Tim Connolly or Colby Armstrong.