Round 1: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens

[herman]

https://twitter.com/draglikepull/status/1399086917916971012
Mmhmm

 

[rdowdall]

https://twitter.com/draglikepull/status/1399086917916971012
Mmhmm

Yeah, and if you look at the stats, Nylander has improved every year in the playoffs, whereas, Marner and Matthews seem to be regressing.

 

[Guilt Trip]

https://twitter.com/draglikepull/status/1399086917916971012
Mmhmm

Yeah, and if you look at the stats, Nylander has improved every year in the playoffs, whereas, Marner and Matthews seem to be regressing.

Matthews isn't regressing. The only thing he's done wrong is not score. Everything else is great despite having Hyman as a winger, who's been terrible. AM leads the team in shots, hits, blocked shots(forwards), faceoffs, takeaway, least amount of giveaways, hasn't been on the ice for an EV strength goal against in the series. Your boy Willy leads the team in EV strength goals against. Willy also gets the easier match up. Hyman has zero takeaways in the series.
Matthews is the least of our worries. I don't care who scores tomorrow night, just win.

 

[L K]

https://twitter.com/draglikepull/status/1399086917916971012
Mmhmm

Yeah, and if you look at the stats, Nylander has improved every year in the playoffs, whereas, Marner and Matthews seem to be regressing.

Matthews isn't regressing. The only thing he's done wrong is not score. Everything else is great despite having Hyman as a winger, who's been terrible. AM leads the team in shots, hits, blocked shots(forwards), faceoffs, takeaway, least amount of giveaways, hasn't been on the ice for an EV strength goal against in the series. Your boy Willy leads the team in EV strength goals against. Willy also gets the easier match up. Hyman has zero takeaways in the series.
Matthews is the least of our worries. I don't care who scores tomorrow night, just win.

I?m on board with you.  I think his wrist is acting up more because he isn?t able to get his wrists shots off as effectively but he?s been good.  That being said he?s also going head to head with Danault an awful lot and he?s basically Riley Nash offensively this year and in general in the postseason

 

[rdowdall]

https://twitter.com/draglikepull/status/1399086917916971012
Mmhmm

Yeah, and if you look at the stats, Nylander has improved every year in the playoffs, whereas, Marner and Matthews seem to be regressing.

Matthews isn't regressing. The only thing he's done wrong is not score. Everything else is great despite having Hyman as a winger, who's been terrible. AM leads the team in shots, hits, blocked shots(forwards), faceoffs, takeaway, least amount of giveaways, hasn't been on the ice for an EV strength goal against in the series. Your boy Willy leads the team in EV strength goals against. Willy also gets the easier match up. Hyman has zero takeaways in the series.
Matthews is the least of our worries. I don't care who scores tomorrow night, just win.

Matthews shooting percentages are:
2017 - 25.0%
2018 - 3.7%
2019 - 15.63%
2020 - 7.4%
2021 - 3.1%

That leaves you with a career average of 9.7% and a lot of that is because of his first season where he shot 25%.  He is a career 16.2% in the regular season.  I think he needs to figure out how to score in the playoffs. 

Matthews is a big chunk of this teams offense.  If he goes silent, then that is a big hole for the team to overcome.  It's even worse for this series because Tavares is out.  It's nice that he isn't allowing anything to happen in the defensive zone.  That's a bonus.  When the Leafs need a goal, he needs to be someone they can count on to score.  If he had one more goal in this series, it may have been over by this point.  Or if Marner had one more goal in this series, it may have been over at this point. 

Also, I think that Nylander is playing against a more offensive line that the line that is checking Matthews.  That Danault line seems more concerned with just shutting the Matthews line down, so if they do that, then mission accomplished.  If you look at his career playoff stats, he has improved his point totals and his shooting percentage each year. 

 

[herman]

Who was passing the puck to Matthews in 2017 to get him such a gaudy shooting percentage?!

 

[rdowdall]

Who was passing the puck to Matthews in 2017 to get him such a gaudy shooting percentage?!

Seth Griffith?

 

[Stronger Than All]

Score first LeAfs

 

[Redleaf]

POSITIVE VIBES ONLY PEOPLE

Leafs in 4.

Either Leafs in 5 or Canadiens in 7  :-[

I know it?s not cool to quote yourself , but man if they?d only won in one of those OTs

 

[Guilt Trip]

POSITIVE VIBES ONLY PEOPLE

Leafs in 4.

Either Leafs in 5 or Canadiens in 7  :-[

I know it?s not cool to quote yourself , but man if they?d only won in one of those OTs

Leafs gave them 2 games.

 

[Highlander]

After watching the Montreal/Jets game, I have a different take on the Leaf loss.  In effect if Koki's goal had not been called back Montreal would have been up 4-1 in the first.
Lets face it they took over last nights game and perhaps they just gelled at the right time.  The young kids; Suzuki, Caulfield and Koki played like killers, the Montreal D is very good and Cary Price in the playoffs is a money guy. 
The thing is we did give 2 games away and that is a travesty, but I would say if Montreal can kill Winnipeg very quickly then who knows what may happen as they advance.  Sometimes teams come together at the right time without injuries, while we lost our Captain, Foligno was not himself, Muzzin missed 1 1/2 and I don't think Hyman was in full power mode either.
Yes I am disappointed but tempered a bit this AM

 

[herman]

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2021/06/04/10-postmortem-thoughts-toronto-maple-leafs/

7)  On the Mitch Marner power-play report, I think Elliotte Friedman made a good point on the MLHS podcast about there maybe being quite a bit of nuance to the situation (was it more about comfort/preference than an outright refusal, was there an element of tip-toeing around strong-willed and highly-paid/respected players? etc).

But I will say this, and I thought this before this Marner controversy: Either some form of internal politics was playing a role with the stubbornness around the roles (Thornton?s and Marner?s, in particular) that led to the incessant predictability, or someone associated with the power play on the coaching staff genuinely thought there was no issue, it would work itself out in time, and in the process, allowed the man advantage to play a major part in derailing the team?s Cup chances ? in a season that represented the organization?s best shot at a Cup since the Mats Sundin era (given the team?s overall play and path through the playoffs). One of these has to be true, and the latter is a borderline fireable offense.

I think whether you believe the Marner PP pseudo-report hinted at by multiple members of the media who write about the Leafs, there was some equally stubborn reverse-Babcocking up of the way the Leafs were coached these playoffs (and Columbus).

Babcock Leafs:
- Balanced TOI, short shifts, everybody is fresh and can go hard for 40s
- Line match the hell out of the game, rhythm be damned, because I, Mike Babcock, am a better coach than you all
- Stretch the NZ, the puck is a live grenade to defensemen so toss it up to the already out of the zone wingers waiting static at the OZ line, quick quick quick
- Matthews and Marner must never share ice, because there is only one puck
- Feel nothing, play like a machine, ignore the grimey stuff, our PP is the deterrent

This playstyle is embodied by Morgan Rielly: fleet of feet and opportunistic, but what is defense and how do we get the puck back?

Keefe Leafs:
- The top line is going to get soooo much ice time, because they usually win their minutes woohoo, let's gooooooooo 24 min per game all day ev'ryday what is context?
- Our top line is so good, I don't care what you put on the ice against them, they're going to play 24+ min haha try to match thaaaaat
- Play tight support, and the puck is our baby so don't throw it away, hold it for an opening, eh maybe hold it some more, it's nice, ah, I guess Mikheyev will have to shoot it from the blueline, ok
- Matthews is a great shooter and Marner is a great passer so under no circumstance shall they be apart, ever.
- Play with emotion, get pumped, work is fun, woohoo let's fight a bit

This playstyle is embodied by Mitch Marner: work hard and get the puck and then keep the puck as much as possible and then keep it even longer because there will be a magical play.


The way forward, even without personnel changes, is to play adaptably. Barring significant injury, the talent level and work rate on the team is enough to comfortably make the playoffs, so really use that regular season time to work on the mixes and matches, and fluidity of changing gears in playstyles (rush vs control/cycle).

This playstyle is embodied by William Nylander, who keeps his shifts short so he can be relied on for longer shifts pressing for a goal, who can effectively play a puck possession cycle game, or a breakaway contest, shoot from distance, or flip a puck into the shelf from in tight, and whose head is always empty save for the lone thought: hockey is life.

 

[herman]

Let?s re-live some pain
https://twitter.com/goalie_school/status/1400216654689226755

 

[herman]

Thoughts on this series

Good:
- Nylander, Kerfoot, Spezza, Rielly, Engvall stepped up
- Campbell was largely good and truly did enough over the course of the series to give the Leafs enough of a chance to win, which is quite different from previous years
- No one got suspended, hurray

Bad:
- Tavares getting a horrific injury (which fortunately turned out best case given how it looked)
- all the deadline deals either got injured or couldn't ramp up
- Matthews and Marner were too easily shut down
- Coaching staff adjustments and certain decisions (goaltender interference gamble) were ill-advised

Playoffs (and hockey in general) are about mistakes and who makes the most of them. The Leafs, like last year's Columbus series, were so focused on not making mistakes that they gave too much latitude for their far less skilled opponent to set up their gameplan. Great shots and chance against numbers aren't that useful if the Leafs don't assert their own play over the opponent and generate errors and chances for themselves.

Easiest fix available to them was flipping Marner off of Matthews' wing. With a line like Danault's, they could neutralize 50+% of the Leafs' potent offense in one easy strategy: cover Matthews. That's it, that's all it takes, and it's been happening for two seasons on the PP as well without anything directly addressing the fact that Marner's standout skill (and self-confidence) is predictable and completely nullified with a modicum of effort. Why didn't they course correct?

Option 1: coaching staff thought it was fine (underlying shot metrics good to great) and just thought it was variance that goals didn't drop.

Option 2: coaching staff and management made assurances to certain players that their roles would set.

Option 3: coaching staff tried to make the necessary change and certain players kiboshed those suggestions.

None of those options are good, and the results here speak for themselves. The answer is probably a fluid combination of the three. Things we know for sure: Keefe experiments a lot (sometimes to his detriment), Dubas' philosophy is to try stuff but if it doesn't work, do something else, and Marner believes he is Matthews-equivalent and deserves to be treated thusly.

I believe this coaching staff and core personnel can overcome this simple but high impact issue by adapting to the situation. There is no justifiable reason any player arrangement needs to be a permanent, season-long experiment. I hope this embarrassment is now sufficient fuel to address whatever hubris in coaching/players that is keeping this team from reaching that next level.

 

[Kin]

Option 1: coaching staff thought it was fine (underlying shot metrics good to great) and just thought it was variance that goals didn't drop.

Option 2: coaching staff and management made assurances to certain players that their roles would set.

Option 3: coaching staff tried to make the necessary change and certain players kiboshed those suggestions.

Feels like this is really just two options as players have no power to "kibosh" a coach's decision unless coaches give them that via some sort of assurance.

None of those options are good, and the results here speak for themselves. The answer is probably a fluid combination of the three. Things we know for sure: Keefe experiments a lot (sometimes to his detriment), Dubas' philosophy is to try stuff but if it doesn't work, do something else, and Marner believes he is Matthews-equivalent and deserves to be treated thusly.

I appreciate you're on a bit of an anti-Marner kick but it's pretty safe to say we do not know for sure what Marner believes about himself.

 

[Bill_Berg]

I feel like the reason they lost is the NHL encourages the evening of teams by 'letting them play' so skilled players can't be quite themselves due to interference not being called. Then it's a coin flip.

 

[Guilt Trip]

- Matthews and Marner were too easily shut down

With Marner not scoring it was imperative, if he wasn't going to break them up, that Keefe put a winger with them that was actually a threat to score, he didn't. Habs only had to focus on Matthews.

 

[herman]

Feels like this is really just two options as players have no power to "kibosh" a coach's decision unless coaches give them that via some sort of assurance.

Hm, you're right, that's more efficient.

I appreciate you're on a bit of an anti-Marner kick but it's pretty safe to say we do not know for sure what Marner believes about himself.

I can only speak for myself here, but his actions on and off the ice are really reinforcing my opinion. Confirmation bias perhaps is playing a role, but I have no other hypothesis that matches. I think he cares a tremendous amount about doing what it takes to win and really looks like he's trying to singlehandedly carry the Cup home and he's crushing himself with expectations and disappointment.

 

[Kin]

I can only speak for myself here, but his actions on and off the ice are really reinforcing my opinion. Confirmation bias perhaps is playing a role, but I have no other hypothesis that matches. I think he cares a tremendous amount about doing what it takes to win and really looks like he's trying to singlehandedly carry the Cup home and he's crushing himself with expectations and disappointment.

I think having an opinion about Marner is fine, I just don't think we can state with any certainty what he might think about anything. I think some reluctance on his part to change is understandable as a young guy who's succeeded at every level to believe that whatever obstacle might be in his way that he can eventually overcome it. That's why, if the coaching/managing staff thinks that they need quicker results then that, it's imperative that they bring the foot down and just make that change and tell Marner to like it or lump it.

 

[ZBBM]

herman, good analysis.  I don't agree with your assessment of Campbell, however.  Aside from a couple of periods where the Leafs just let MTL play shooting gallery and he was terrific, he failed in exactly the same way Andersen did: bad goals at critical times.  Campbell has seemed to somehow escape blame for the horrible GWG in G1, and the first goal in G7 was just as bad as any Andersen G7 flop.

The Leafs blew the series for many reasons, one of which was that our goalie gave up bad goals when games were on the line and theirs didn't.