General Leafs Talk

[Jalili]

That is a good point and you are right. If Boston simply has the Leafs number then so be it I suppose.

But if you look back at this young season you can see an opener against the Habs where the Leafs were non-existent for half the game and lucky to win, a 2nd game against Ottawa where they built a 5-1 lead and then barely hung on to a 6-5 win, a NJ game where a weak goalie gave us the win and a CBJ game where an even weaker goalie did the same. My point is that the Leafs are not nearly as good as their record seems to indicate. It is not wrong to point out that some of this euphoria is not well placed or well considered.

Wins are wins and they help get to the playoff goal, but I am still a long way from being convinced that this is a playoff team. Goals against and PK are the two most glaring problems that make me feel that way. on top of that the Leafs were fortunate to open the season riding a hot hand by Kessel, but now that has dried up again (although it will come back again as it always does).

I just want more..... isn't that fair?

I like to think of it as a reverse of the team going 4-9-1 while clearly demonstrating that they're better than their record indicates.

I'm beginning to think that unless the team sorts out some pretty significant issues on special teams and the blueline, the team may be destined to level off in the next few weeks.

*I should note that I'm still happy about the team's record, just wary of what the numbers actually indicate.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

It is not wrong to point out that some of this euphoria is not well placed or well considered.

What euphoria?  At the most there has been optimism or cautious optimism, but that hardly seems out of place with a positive start to the season after the tough start last season.

If anything there has been, on the board and in the media (I'm looking at you James Mirtle), a "they are going to start losing a bunch of games in a row" mentality.

 

[Kin]

The problem, of course, is that in the real world you cannot take away any games, let alone both games vs. Boston.

Except, of course, you absolutely can if you're trying to learn things from statistics, especially if you're dealing with small sample sizes. If a team's goal differential is even and they're 5-5 it says something very different than a team with an even goal differential who are 8-2.

Let's use an extreme example. Let's say that, for whatever reason, an NHL team gave up fifty shots in a game and their goalies stopped none of them. That would obviously have a very negative effect on their goal differential but would not be particularly helpful in examining them on the year.

That's basically the case here. The Boston games are outliers. They've been good this year even if their goal differential doesn't show it.

 

[Bender]

The problem, of course, is that in the real world you cannot take away any games, let alone both games vs. Boston.

Except, of course, you absolutely can if you're trying to learn things from statistics, especially if you're dealing with small sample sizes. If a team's goal differential is even and they're 5-5 it says something very different than a team with an even goal differential who are 8-2.

Let's use an extreme example. Let's say that, for whatever reason, an NHL team gave up fifty shots in a game and their goalies stopped none of them. That would obviously have a very negative effect on their goal differential but would not be particularly helpful in examining them on the year.

That's basically the case here. The Boston games are outliers. They've been good this year even if their goal differential doesn't show it.

Agreed on all counts. While the GF/GA still counts in the statistics, the outliers aren't very good measuring sticks when it comes to projecting the overall standings. I think there will likely be a couple outliers where the Leafs blowout a couple of opponents like they did Atlanta last year as well, and I don't think using them as an example of how dominant the Leafs really are is prudent either.

 

[cw]

I think with the goal differential, it's just too early to put tons of stock in it.

Of the top 8 teams in the standings, the other seven are five or more goals better than the Leafs so if someone made an argument that maybe they don't belong in the top 8, I'd listen but couldn't accept it solely on that stat.

If one did the standings by goal differential, the Leafs would be in 16th place. To me, based upon their play to date, that seems rather harsh - in spite of their easy schedule to begin the season.

In Pts win%, that has them in 6th - maybe high in how many might expect them to finish.

If we toss the two Boston outliers for the Leafs, arguably, we should toss two outliers for the other teams. Doing that, I doubt a bunch would change in how they stack up in goal differential in a meaningful way - even if the ranking by differential shifts some.

Bottom line to me is they're ranked 28th in GAA and 30th in the PK. To remain a playoff team, those numbers are very likely going to have to improve. And they have four more games against the Bruins. Of course, they could try to shove them aside as outliers as well pretending they don't have a problem there ....

 

[Bender]

I think with the goal differential, it's just too early to put tons of stock in it.

Of the top 8 teams in the standings, the other seven are five or more goals better than the Leafs so if someone made an argument that maybe they don't belong in the top 8, I'd listen but couldn't accept it solely on that stat.

If one did the standings by goal differential, the Leafs would be in 16th place. To me, based upon their play to date, that seems rather harsh - in spite of their easy schedule to begin the season.

In Pts win%, that has them in 6th - maybe high in how many might expect them to finish.

If we toss the two Boston outliers for the Leafs, arguably, we should toss two outliers for the other teams. Doing that, I doubt a bunch would change in how they stack up in goal differential in a meaningful way - even if the ranking by differential shifts some.

Bottom line to me is they're ranked 28th in GAA and 30th in the PK. To remain a playoff team, those numbers are very likely going to have to improve. And they have four more games against the Bruins. Of course, they could try to shove them aside as outliers as well pretending they don't have a problem there ....

Well they aren't outliers when they are indeed the trend.

 

[Fanatic]

I just heard a stat this morning that in the past 10 years not one team that has finished 30th in PK has made the playoffs.

Hardly surprising. But it also highlights the disparity that we see right now between a team that is 3rd overall (recently 1st overall) in the standings and a team that is also firmly in 30th place with the PK.

 

[Zee]

I've made a promise to myself to look at the overall record in 10 game chunks.  If they play well through each 10 game span the Leafs will be fine.

First 10: 7-2-1
Second 10: 2-2-0

Obviously the next 5-6 games are crucial.  If the Leafs can go 4-2 over the next 6 they're in good shape with a 6-4 record in the second 10 despite all the issues.  That would leave the overall record at 13-6-1 after 20 games.

Next 6 games are:
Panthers
@Blues
Senators
Coyotes
@Predators
Capitals

I'm hoping for wins against Panthers, Sens, Coyotes and then one of Blues/Predators.  I don't see us beating the Caps and the Preds game might be tough as well.

 

[maplesyrup]

I've made a promise to myself to look at the overall record in 10 game chunks. 

8) I've done the exact same thing.

 

[cw]

I had a look at goal differential since the lockout:
NHL Sortable Standings link

Every year since the lockout, the top 8 in goal differential in each conference made the playoffs (unless I missed one in my quick scan). 

Seven teams with a negative goal differential made it into the playoffs but they were within the top eight in their conference in that year.

Generally, with the object of the game to outscore the other team, that makes plenty of sense and would surprise few though the fact that I saw no exception surprised me a little.

The Leafs currently at -1 are in 7th place, one goal ahead of Tampa, Florida and Montreal in the 8th to 10th spots at -2.

I'm sure we could find in the past or might see in the future cases where a team slightly lower in goal differential beats out a team slightly higher for the final playoff berth. I doubt the stat is that reliable in terms of determining a playoff berth without exception. But if I were coach Wilson, that's not something I would want to bank my future on.

I do think the Leafs standing in that stat ought to set off some alarm bells that they're far less secure of a playoff berth than the generic standings might indicate given that they had a pretty easy schedule to start the season and rack up some numbers. As I interpret it, either they improve defensively or they're in the dogfight many predicted they would be to make the playoffs. And if they slip further, their playoff aspirations are likely in trouble.

 

[Erndog]

No Tim Connolly at practice today.

Is this really happening again?  Already!?!

 

[Mikhail Bloodnovsky]

No Tim Connolly at practice today.

Is this really happening again?  Already!?!

This guy needs a per game contract.

 

[bustaheims]

No Tim Connolly at practice today.

Is this really happening again?  Already!?!

markhmasters: Ron Wilson says Tim Connolly is out 10 days to two weeks with an upper-body injury

 

[Peter D.]

markhmasters: Ron Wilson says Tim Connolly is out 10 days to two weeks with an upper-body injury

Did he break a nail or something?  For cryin' out loud.

His talent is undeniable, but this is exactly what many of us were weary of when we signed him.

 

[Bender]

markhmasters: Ron Wilson says Tim Connolly is out 10 days to two weeks with an upper-body injury

Did he break a nail or something?  For cryin' out loud.

His talent is undeniable, but this is exactly what many of us were weary of when we signed him.

Seems like we're starting to get hit with the injury bug. We still have no ETA for Reimer...

 

[Zee]

Yeah, not looking good.  We were hoping Connolly could put injury woes behind him, and yet he's only appeared in 6 out of 14 games, and how will miss a bunch more.  *Sigh*

 

[Derk]

Meh. So far the risk hasn't paid off. Still some time left on that contract for him to miraculously change.

 

[pnjunction]

Oh my the fans and media are not going to take kindly to this.

I think the Armstrong and Reimer injuries hurt the team more though. It is right in the numbers that we lose without them. I always considered Connolly a gamble that might pay off, it doesn't look good right now but could turn around.

The smoke being blown up our asses about Reimer is my biggest concern right now.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

No Tim Connolly at practice today.

Is this really happening again?  Already!?!

markhmasters: Ron Wilson says Tim Connolly is out 10 days to two weeks with an upper-body injury

I wonder if this is an aggravation of the same injury or a new one? If it's a new one, then this guy comes as advertised, just made of glass and that's unfortunate for us.

Maybe we could bring up Colborne, that would be awesome. Part of me wants to just let him destroy the AHL, but I have this feeling that our future 1st line center is playing with the Marlies as we speak and his name is Joe Colborne.

 

[Kessel Run]

No Tim Connolly at practice today.

Is this really happening again?  Already!?!

markhmasters: Ron Wilson says Tim Connolly is out 10 days to two weeks with an upper-body injury

I wonder if this is an aggravation of the same injury or a new one? If it's a new one, then this guy comes as advertised, just made of glass and that's unfortunate for us.

Maybe we could bring up Colborne, that would be awesome. Part of me wants to just let him destroy the AHL, but I have this feeling that our future 1st line center is playing with the Marlies as we speak and his name is Joe Colborne.

Wilson said this injury is unrelated to his previous injury.